The actual data of what's happened historically contradicts what you're claiming because you keep comparing poor strategy (eg individual or narrow stock selection and/or limited time periods) with correct strategy which demonstrably delivers the results claimed within the quantified risk parameters. It's just math and it is objectively correct.
That doesn't mean that there are no risks. There are always risks but the math allows us to quantify those risks to make informed choices. Executing an effective strategy requires understanding the data, identifying an approach that fits your goals and then, most of all, the financial discipline to rigorously stick to the plan over many years despite emotional ups and downs (eg fear in downturns, exuberance in upswings).
Personally, I've been executing such a plan for decades now and I can assure you it feels nothing like a "casino" or gambling. Instead, it's downright boring. Once a year I make a predetermined algorithmic rebalance to the broad portfolio and otherwise I do nothing and don't even think about it. When the portfolio was way up a couple years ago, I didn't cash in any extra nor even 'celebrate'. Now that the portfolio is down this year, I'm not selling or thinking about cutting "losses." Why? Because they aren't losses unless I need to sell and I don't need to sell now because those prior "winnings" from a few years ago are more than enough to cover several more years of downturn if necessary. I'm not worried. The same thing happened in 2001 and 2009 and both times the plan worked. So far, the overall multi-decade results are so far ahead of plan it would take a substantially larger and longer global crash than has ever happened to go negative (just as the article predicted at >20 years).
It's working, as predicted, and within parameters. What I'm doing isn't even complicated much less clever. It's just the standard "Bogglehead"-type strategy that's been studied forever, used by millions and freely available all over the web (eg buy and hold a balanced and broadly diversified self-managed portfolio of very low cost ETFs (VTI etc)). I have no stock broker, financial planner or advisor, I'm no financial guru and I only spend about 90 minutes once a year on my investment portfolio. Hell, I've never even bought an individual stock.
That doesn't mean that there are no risks. There are always risks but the math allows us to quantify those risks to make informed choices. Executing an effective strategy requires understanding the data, identifying an approach that fits your goals and then, most of all, the financial discipline to rigorously stick to the plan over many years despite emotional ups and downs (eg fear in downturns, exuberance in upswings).
Personally, I've been executing such a plan for decades now and I can assure you it feels nothing like a "casino" or gambling. Instead, it's downright boring. Once a year I make a predetermined algorithmic rebalance to the broad portfolio and otherwise I do nothing and don't even think about it. When the portfolio was way up a couple years ago, I didn't cash in any extra nor even 'celebrate'. Now that the portfolio is down this year, I'm not selling or thinking about cutting "losses." Why? Because they aren't losses unless I need to sell and I don't need to sell now because those prior "winnings" from a few years ago are more than enough to cover several more years of downturn if necessary. I'm not worried. The same thing happened in 2001 and 2009 and both times the plan worked. So far, the overall multi-decade results are so far ahead of plan it would take a substantially larger and longer global crash than has ever happened to go negative (just as the article predicted at >20 years).
It's working, as predicted, and within parameters. What I'm doing isn't even complicated much less clever. It's just the standard "Bogglehead"-type strategy that's been studied forever, used by millions and freely available all over the web (eg buy and hold a balanced and broadly diversified self-managed portfolio of very low cost ETFs (VTI etc)). I have no stock broker, financial planner or advisor, I'm no financial guru and I only spend about 90 minutes once a year on my investment portfolio. Hell, I've never even bought an individual stock.