> An inverse relationship between level of unemployment and forward stock market returns. In the current quintile (2.5% to 4.4% unemployment), the average S&P 500 return over the following year is 5.6% versus and average of 12.7% in all periods. The best returns historically have come after periods of high unemployment
Of course they don’t, that’s not what your articles say. Did you read them? They, respectively, say that the market is forward-looking and that major gains are made after downturns.
It can simultaneously be true that major gains are made after downturns and that there has historically been a strong correlation between downturns and unemployment.
