That is why https://www.firecalc.com/ exists. The idea is that you save enough that over all the possible starting years, you would end up with money instead of broke, for the length of time you think you'll be alive.
It's my understanding that firecalc uses only US data. Japan has "lost decades" of price-weighted, non-dividend returns that are flat since 1988 (Nikkei 225). Seems worth considering that some version of this has some future probability of happening in the US and hedging that.
Another similar and popular US-data-only tool that is fun to play with is cFIREsim: https://www.cfiresim.com/
(Edit: of course, US companies have non-US revenues - helps out a bit)
