You're talking about MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). If it's below 1, it means the average investor is carrying a loss, and > 1 means carrying profit. Historically every halving it has spent some time below 1, and we are right on schedule.
I didn't propose that. I just linked a relevant indicator. If you'd like me to predict the future, I predict that eventually BTC will fill a similar niche as gold - it will outperform cash under the mattress, but underperform index funds. You'll be able to spot the transition when the MVRV starts to center around 1.0 instead of its current ~1.5. But I couldn't begin to guess when that will happen. Maybe this crash is the catalyst, or maybe it will happen a decade from now. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
By that definition, which financial instruments aren't negative sum? E.g. stocks trade hands in a very similar way, and companies can always issue new shares.
The same thing could happen with crypto. A smart contract developer sells crypto to fund development of a smart contract. That smart contract can provide new utility and drive demand for the currency.
https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/