seems to imply that in old age say just 'go bat more' and with your constant probability of success you'll produce more good work (if only you could motivate yourself) but there may be a causality issue, where your motivation to 'attempt' is not a blind thing but a function of whether you think you have a good idea. i can accept that this judgement might be constant over time, but 'potential attempt material' seems unlikely to be purely exogenous..