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The growth potential for Tim Hortons seems limited in my opinion -- it will continue to fill each corner of Canada, but we already know that and this is priced into its existing valuation. It dominantes Canada but that is because it is seen as part of Canadiana. It's attempts to expand into the US have generally not succeeded.[1]

Both are already large enough to have economies of scale in terms of purchasing power, thus I do not see the reason for this outside of tax savings.

Strangely, a lot of Tim Hortons in Canada share buildings with Wendy's. Thus there is some cross pollination there between these two, maybe the strategy is to take this to the extreme and have nearly each Tim Horton's location be paired with a Burger King.

BTW some of the richest people I know (10,000 sq ft homes) own Tim Horton franchises (usually in central locations in major cities.) A boring business compared to startups, but damn it can be crazy profitable. Might be the time to snap those locations up if they are going to do some major US expansion.

[1] See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Hortons#Northeastern_US_de... But another commenter disputes that and he may have more recent information.



"It's attempts to expand into the US have generally not succeeded."

Looks like someone's never been to Western NY.


Someone's going to have to define "successful expansion" before this recurring point/counterpoint turns ugly.


Tim Horton's marketing has to be lauded for the way they've insinuated themselves into the national identity. It's impressive to somehow make fast-food donuts and coffee into something "patriotic".

I think the problem is that the company is hampered by its own success - coffee has very low overhead and every canadian drinks Tim's coffee at least once in a while. This gives them some impossible expectations for every other project, because every opportunity for growth doesn't see that kind of spectacular margin.


its already dominating Western New York and growing in NYS in general. There is one in Penn Station in Manhattan now.


> its already dominating Western New York and growing in NYS in general.

Really? Maybe things changed. Because a few years ago, I had read that some of its US expansion plans hadn't worked out, see here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Hortons#Northeastern_US_de...


The WNY presence has been strong for 30 or 40 years (I think Michigan as well, not positive), that paragraph basically just says they failed to establish a beachhead in New England, which is DnD country, through and through.


attempts to expand not successful? Not sure about that. Sure the first attempts (incl the Wendy's deal) weren't...but the current era of expansion in NY/NorthEast 'Cafe & Bake Shop' seems to have gone better...with Tim's learning/more financial power/proper ad marketing. It's become one of the small players in your everytown corner coffee shops. Just in a relatively small region. I mean, something helped attract BK to it other than the tax inversion.


My wife and I see ads for "Tim Horton's Cafe and Bake Shop" during NFL games on the US stations and it seems bizarre to us that they apparently felt Americans needed to have an explanation added to the name of the business.


All over Rochester NY. I think the coffee is better in Canada though- based on my single experience trying it on the Canadian side of Niagara falls.


It's not strange that Wendy's and Tim Horton's share a lot of buildings. Wendy's bought Tim Horton's in 1995. They sold it off again in 2006.

Anecdotally, Tim Horton's is doing very well in Michigan. In my hometown there were 2 Tim Horton's years before there was even a Starbucks.


Not quite my hometown, but the closest reasonably sized town to there has around 5 Tim Hortons but no Starbucks.


> "It's attempts to expand into the US have generally not succeeded."

[curious] What parts of the US has it tried expanding in, before? I live in northern midwest US, and have never seen any around here. Was it more towards the east or west coast, do you know?



Ohio & Western NY primarily


There's a tiny TH in Times Sq NYC, but it's horrible. It's basically a small counter top in a KFC or something. The donuts aren't made on premises.


My understanding is that the TH in Camada have donuts shipped to them from. Central location rather than baking those on premises. Could be out of date info though, I don't know. I've wanted to try Tim Hortons just because it's a central Canadian think in a webcomic I once read (Avalon) but I have never succumbed to the idea of an insane weekend road trip to canada to try a donut. I do hope they come to the US near me.


Honestly, the donuts or the coffee aren't worth the drive. Canadian's love it for the nostalgia, not because it tastes amazing.

As a kid you went there with your parents. As a teen you went there with your friends. In highschool/summer, when you didn't have specific plans (@4pm or @4am), you met up at TH. In university, you'd go get a soup, sandwich and drink, sick of eating the same thing for the 4th time this week. Now as an adult you go back home, and if you're meeting old friends, you know you're meeting at Timmy's. Infact, half the fun is meeting at Timmy's. I think I'm quoting one of their ads but, for Canadian's "Its [just] where life happens".

Anyways, not saying you shouldn't take the road trip. Long drives with a friend or two just for some "mediocre" food are the most fun trips. I have one almost annually for In-N-Out. Definitely don't be expecting ambrosia though, its awesome because its not special, its just a donut and a double double.


I once drove four hours to the closest Krispy Kreme in my area the day it opened. It was worth every second of driving just to eat them. I brought back 10 dozen donuts and sold them locally for double the price.

Now living in Canada, I would probably drive 10 minutes to a Timmy's, but that's about the extent of it. The donuts aren't as good as the other local donut franchise (Robin's), and their coffee is absolutely terrible. Krispy Kreme is superior in every way.

If you find yourself in Canada, stop in and buy a Double-double and some Timbits. Don't make going to Timmy's the point of a trip.


I believe Burger King wants to move it's head quarters to canada for lower taxes.


You see them in the same real estate because Wendys purchased Tim Hortons in 1995, but subsequently sold it off.

The Tim Hortons business isn't attractive except for the tax inversion benefits, which make it plenty attractive indeed.




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