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I am struggling with the economics behind this - we seem to have discovered an entire industry that sits in a eddy of economic thought - the value added by an operator has a very low ceiling, so they cannot negotiate much, plus the operators themselves have non-interchangeable skill sets - so the number of jobs they are actually qualified for is very low, especially in a given locale. Hence 10 USD an hour.

In short, the manager of a Mcdonalds can move to a local KFC or Wendys with very little effort. An operator of machinetools X has no chance just picking it up on tools Y.

What I think we are seeing is the result of automation destroying jobs - as ChuckMcM says up page. And if so I am interested suddenly in rereading the Communist Manifesto - because in 20 years, we cannot continue having money flow to the owners of the means of production as defined now - if almost all production is automated, what happens then?

I am too tired to do much more than realise there is an interesting path of thought leading away from here - one I suspect having been trodden by many other thinkers before me. Any travel guides welcome.

edit: too vitriolic



  but then if the skills were transferrable (ie not 
  proprietary) then the market would adjust - but it seems 
  that there are very very few people with Machine X 
  experience in each locale, and they are desperate for jobs.
It's not a problem of proprietary skills - Siemens controllers, Fanuc controllers and Heidenahin controllers are extremely similar. Changing between Siemens and Fanuc is more like changing from Eclipse to Netbeans than changing from Java to C.

The problem is the entire market for CNC machine operators is very small.

Edit: I see you've edited your comment.


Yes sorry about that - as a general rule for comments and emails, if I put f%%k in there, I really should rethink it.

opendna below suggests there is research that small (isolated) pools of labour fail to benefit from the intuitive supply/demand wage growth.

My antennea are wavering - this feels like a disruption happening. If I ever pick up my research MSc I think this will be the perfect subject.


"Any travel guides welcome."

You might try reading up on the Heckscher–Ohlin model and Stolper-Samuelson theorem. There are a great number of criticisms of each but, to over-simplify, the counter-intuitive take-away is that returns will be highest for the most abundant factor of production. i.e. the larger the pool of unskilled labor, the more laborers will be paid. Scarcity actually causes the value of a factor of production to fall. (Yes, I know that's the opposite of everything you know about economics.)

For a more qualitative approach, try "The Coming Post-Industrial Society" by Daniel Bell (1973), available at a library near you [http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/473951691]. For a more culture theory approach, try Neil Postman's "Technopoly" (1992) http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/24694343]. If you're into old-school tech determinism and political economy, both Lewis Mumford's "Technics and Civilization" (1934)[http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/560667] and Harold Innis' "Communication and Empire" (1972) [http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/281110] are more intelligible than Marshall McLuhan's work.




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