I was with you until the "cost more than oil" line. My reasoning on that is the third world is going to need large amounts of energy to boost themselves to everyone else's standard of living. Like India and China, they are going to use the same, proven sources we did unless the alternatives are cheaper to implement and just as reliable. It isn't a do nothing attitude, its a realistic assessment based on human behavior. That's why alternatives really need to have an advantage over oil.
Your reasoning is right, I don't think alternatives will pick up in developing countries first (unless it's something really groundbreaking that's being overlooked, or something specific)
The problem I see with some opinions is the attitude of "oil is best" without considering specifics. For example, wind power may be more expensive, but there may be a case that for powering something in the middle of China it may be cheaper, since oil has to be transported there.
Also, electric cars, "oh they are useless since our power plants are coal/gas based". Yes, but tomorrow they may be powered by something else.
Their might be local bests for non-oil, just like there are in the US, but overall oil gives a well-understood, cheap playbook.
Electric cars are more problematic because they are more costly than gas vehicles (I still don't get this, but lookup new car prices). Limited range and utility are other problems.
I am very hopeful. It looks like railroads in the US are going to move to natural gas (I submitted the article a couple of days ago) which will cut down the emissions. I would imagine when the quickly rechargeable battery shows up , its all going to change.
