I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability.
(I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)
What is the point of attacking a TV station and a prison, if not for regime change?
For the record, I agree with you that Israel has little "to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability." I just don't think the people in charge of Israel see it that way. I think they feel they have a short window to achieve certain objectives they've wanted for a long time while Trump is in power).
And I think they prefer to have regional instability - a bunch of weaker chess pieces that they can play against each other - like how they supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, funded Hamas, ISIS, and ISIS-derived militias to achieve short-term goals etc..
In case you didn't know about the last few points, here are some links:
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy"
https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=s...
By the way, regarding "Israel literally controls Iran's airspace" - Iran don't really have an air force. Their deliberate strategy given their limited resources was to focus on a ballistic missile program and all things considered this has worked ok. By the way, Israel failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran even when they had the element of surprise with an attack that was planned 18 months in advance (drafted during the Biden administration) yet somehow Iran was able to begin answering within 48 hours and do enough damage (which required penetrating anti-missile defenses of several major powers) that Israel agreed to a cease-fire.
After the 12-day war, China immediately sold Iran a number of J10-C fighters and air defense options, but it takes months to deliver/train all of them. So Israel is incentivized to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran before this window closes as well. In other words, Israel's war is the 'cause its own necessity' (1).
I agree, Iran doesn't really have an air force. In fact, they don't really even have a military --- by deliberate design. Iran will never field a competitive air force and I think it's actually pretty unlikely that they'll ever even field a seriously deterrent air defense system. I think that apart from lobbing MRBMs at Israel they simply aren't a serious regional threat anymore. They bet big on the IRGC Axis and it collapsed.
I'm not as convinced as you (and the Economist) are about Israel's interests in the total collapse of the Iranian regime. Either way, the protest movement is far too large for it to plausibly be a product of foreign intervention. I don't think we have to convince each other on this point, even if we don't agree.
I think you're constantly making non sequiturs around details that aren't central to the point. I could answer these, but I don't want to get distracted. At the end of the day, given everything you know, you don't believe that Netanyahu wants the Iranian regime toppled?
Revolutions can have some component of foreign intervention without necessarily negating the will of the people. The French aided the US, for example. So I don't know why the idea that the Iran protests are not foreign backed is so important to you.
There is plenty of public evidence of foreign backing of Iranian opposition (which interestingly might actually play right into the Mullahs' hands https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/has-reza-pahlavi-become...) but it would make sense for there to be orders of magnitude more activity behind the scenes vs. what is publicly stated. For example, the US didn't admit participating in the 1953 coup of Mossadegh until 2013.
So please tell me how you are so sure that there is no foreign intervention today..
It’s your choice to claim a negative in the first place. But yes, make an attempt to prove what you are saying and extraordinary claims require some evidence. Foreign countries have been meddling with Iran for over 200 years at the very least. The idea that now they aren’t is laughable.
I opened by showing how your statements are in direct contradiction, by the way.
(I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)