But then the question becomes: why would he be more vulnerable in Sweden than in the UK? The linked article argues that he is more vulnerable to extradition to the US in the UK. I buy that argument. What is your argument that he would be more vulnerable in Sweden?
There is an opportunity cost in the US attacking Assange. It's pretty clear that they couldn't "just do it": international condemnation would be huge. So they have to discredit him first; once he's "fallen" and not under the spotlight, then it will be much easier.
Extraditing him now, from the UK, would be seen as a brazen attack on civil liberties, press freedom and whistleblowing, hitting front-pages hard. Extraditing him after he's already been convicted by another country on character-smearing charges would be a page-ten item. (Also, it's an electoral year in the US, and Obama has enough problems with his own base as it is.)
To be honest, their current strategy is working wonders: the entirety of mainstream press (and not just them, even people who should know better like Amnesty International) has clearly decided he's a twat and does not deserve being defended. They are now covering these proceedings as a soap-opera in which he's a delirious dostoevskjian character running like a headless chicken. It doesn't seem to matter that a (idiotic) British government is so angered that is threatening to destroy the holiest diplomatic principle of them all.
Even assuming Assange is guilty, the current position of the Foreign Secretary, Rt. Hon. William Hague (Conservatives) is so appallingly overboard that either he's a complete nutter/idiot/incompetent hack (which he might as well be, to be fair, despite his first-class grammar-school education), or there's more to this story than a common case of rape.
Yours, olifante's and others' arguments for why Assange is more vulnerable in Sweden, as far as I can tell, are basically: "because I can concoct a scenario in which it is so." That is, it's based on speculation, not evidence.
In other words, it's a standard conspiracy theory.
Sweden is a huge country with very low population density and one of its neighbors is Russia, a formidable military power. This means it is very dependent on the US for its security, and more likely to be vulnerable to explicit or implicit pressure from the US than an island nation of 60 million people that is also a nuclear power.
I'm convinced this is also the case with Australia, which is why they're so unwilling to stand up for Assange.
They don't actually share a border with Russia, were never part of Russia or the USSR and are part of the EU. There's zero chance of the Russians invading.
You do realise the British nukes are Polaris missiles bought from and serviced by the United States, correct? Put blunt, the UK wouldn't be a nuclear power right now if the US didn't sell them ICBMs.
I believe the "special relationship" between the US and the UK would still stand if the US asked for an Australian to be extradited from the UK to the US. The British just extradited O'Dwyer to the US for civil offences. Assange would most likely be charged under the US Espionage Act, which is a criminal offence.
