I think that you probably get 50% at the generation introduction and another 50% over 10 years as the encoders are improved (and more hardware is thrown at the problem).

Double track on licensing makes some sense for a profile that can be served or provided free but I expect the efficiency benefits would mean that for commercial uses you would pay. That would mean that most hardware will support both so really I think most decodes will support both.

Maybe people will use the non free for mobile.