This article is great: hard data from someone who is actually doing it.
The way solar panel prices are going, my suspicion is that the most economical way to get a reliable home system is to massively over specify the solar array so it puts out a decent amount of power on the worst possible day. The electronics would be sized to account for your maximum usage, even if that means dumping energy when the array output exceeds what you need. A battery would be sized to simply last overnight, on the assumption that the oversized solar array will be able to fully recharge it the next day whatever the weather. It would only be worth upgrading the electronics/battery if a buyer/money earner could be found for the excess capacity. I need to do the numbers to see if this hypothesis is true.
As someone who lives on grid, but barely... in that I lose power many times per year and have had week+ outage's.
I believe you are mostly right with the addition of
* shift power consumption to summer months.
* wood heat in the winter and electric air conditioning in the summer.
* electric-expensive hobbies in the summer (e.g. welding)
* with low winter consumption, multi day battery operation becomes feasible
* small dual fuel generator and a propane tank to recharge the battery bank in emergencies and extended outages with little solar production
The way solar panel prices are going, my suspicion is that the most economical way to get a reliable home system is to massively over specify the solar array so it puts out a decent amount of power on the worst possible day. The electronics would be sized to account for your maximum usage, even if that means dumping energy when the array output exceeds what you need. A battery would be sized to simply last overnight, on the assumption that the oversized solar array will be able to fully recharge it the next day whatever the weather. It would only be worth upgrading the electronics/battery if a buyer/money earner could be found for the excess capacity. I need to do the numbers to see if this hypothesis is true.