I can, and I would say it's a likely scenario, say 30%. If they don't have a significant edge over their competitors in the capabilities of their models, what's left? A money losing web app, and some API services that I'm sure aren't very profitable either. They can't compete with Google, Grok, Meta, MS, Amazon... They just can't.
OpenAI has already succeeded.
If it ends up being a $100B company instead of a $10T company, that is success. By a very large margin.
It's hard to imagine a world in which OpenAI just goes bankrupt and ends up being worth nothing.