I was opposed to Biden dropping out because skipping the primary means you go into the general election without the real pulse of the voters in your party.
I think Democrats in general are putting far too much weight on survey based polls, and not enough on ballet box polls.
I wouldn't even rule out 2020 like you're doing - I think Biden is actually a very compelling candidate for a lot of folks that don't get much mention in typical democratic discussion circles. Religious, relatively socially conservative but economically left (traditional union left, not neo-liberal), white, male.
While people complained about it not being Sanders online - Sanders and Biden were fairly similar platforms in a lot of respects, with the difference being that corporate money was less hostile to Biden - and it's telling that they were the only two to take any significant percentage of the primary vote (no other candidate broke 3mm votes)
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Basically - I think there's a solid chance that despite the polling news around the first debate, Biden might have actually performed more strongly on election night.
As an extra note - As someone who was initially very critical of Biden... I have a lurking suspicion that he's going to be considered an excellent president in a historical context because he managed to invest heavily in infrastructure.
I was opposed to Biden dropping out because skipping the primary means you go into the general election without the real pulse of the voters in your party.
I think Democrats in general are putting far too much weight on survey based polls, and not enough on ballet box polls.
I wouldn't even rule out 2020 like you're doing - I think Biden is actually a very compelling candidate for a lot of folks that don't get much mention in typical democratic discussion circles. Religious, relatively socially conservative but economically left (traditional union left, not neo-liberal), white, male.
While people complained about it not being Sanders online - Sanders and Biden were fairly similar platforms in a lot of respects, with the difference being that corporate money was less hostile to Biden - and it's telling that they were the only two to take any significant percentage of the primary vote (no other candidate broke 3mm votes)
---
Basically - I think there's a solid chance that despite the polling news around the first debate, Biden might have actually performed more strongly on election night.
As an extra note - As someone who was initially very critical of Biden... I have a lurking suspicion that he's going to be considered an excellent president in a historical context because he managed to invest heavily in infrastructure.