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IIRC NASA requires a 1/270 chance of failure in space.


Thank you! It seems wikipedia confirms what you are saying. Sadly the article it references is no longer available, so i can’t dig into it. But it sounds 1/270 is for the requirement for overall mission while the ascent and descent phases have 1/500 apportioned to them each.

Was trying to put this 1/500 number into perspective for myself. It sounds like it is rougly similar to the mortality of having appendicites. [1]

1: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamasurgery/article-abstrac...




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