This is old data even without the excess inventory a lot of new larger module manufacturing got online end of 2023 and start of 2024. These are the currnet traded prices separated with efficiency
High efficiency: $0.19
Mainstream: $0.13
Junk tier: $0.08
Trending flat as of late with single digit percentage reductions in price to be expected year over year.
At these prices the actual panels for most houses would be below $1,000 wholesale. The vast majority of the cost is elsewhere.
It is great that it keeps getting cheaper but at this point the returns are diminishing. If you're thinking of buying something there is no new tech or anything on the horizon worth waiting for just go ahead.
Now the next big thing in home solar will be home batteries. BYD seagull Chinese car costs less than $10k it has a 30-32 kWh battery where as a Tesla powerwall costs around $9k for 13 kWh. With feed in tariff restrictions being added home battery market is going to explode.
It's just for the bits and pieces. I wouldn't be intimidated as it is basically plug and play at this point.
The marketing, installation and paperwork triple or even quadruple the price as people way $whatever to not deal with it. Being a sparky is way more lucrative than even a plumber.
From his perspective it is down to $0.27 per watt.
In order to fill up those 14Kwh batteries you'll need fewer than 10 panels (400watts per panel, x4 hours sunshine). So less than $1,000.
The inverter is less than $1,000.
And the battery is heading to below $3,000.
YouTubers like MKBHD have videos up where they paid six figures for their setups and wonder whether it is worth it due to the long payback heh. I know not fair comparison whatever, we're just talking.
I have no idea what to do about NIMBY type problems but you can setup an off grid cabin somewhere with all the creature comforts very very easily now.
I have the whole solar setup already (financed at 1% so it was 100% worth it) but I don't have batteries, biggest problem for me i guess would be to do all the paperwork to have this sorted out.
If being a sparky didn't require apprenticeship i'd definitely consider that, the amount of money i've paid for these services have convinced me I'm not in the right field and i make high six figures as an engineer :(
> It is great that it keeps getting cheaper but at this point the returns are diminishing. If you're thinking of buying something there is no new tech or anything on the horizon worth waiting for just go ahead.
I think if they get perovskite degradation under control, tandem cells with 30%+ efficiency are on the horizon.
Also, future cells still can get a whole lot thinner and lighter, which decreases material costs and overall requirements on mounting hardware (only a little, you still need to deal with wind loads).
But I agree, especially for home owners there's no reason to wait. Still, if you're in the business of building a gigawatt scale powerplants, there's still a lot of things to look forward to. Also, ground installation of panels still has a lot of untapped automation potential.
Welll... Tandem perovskite cells have been tested up to 35% effective while your traditional ones are 20-25%. So for same labour cost you'll get 50% more returns...
https://www.pvxchange.com/Price-Index