Any prediction of the future is either right or wrong. Yes, some can be really wrong (we'll never need more than 640k of memory) but ultimately a prediction is just a prediction.
Personally, I think AI is in the hope cycle right now. It's new (in an industry that sees very few new things.) I can see it being a useful tool in our belt in the coming years.
But equally, I don't think it'll replace (most of) us. I think we'll use it to be more productive.
Your target market will also matter. We're B2B, and companies don't buy "software" from us, they buy solutions to problems. And that very much includes the ability to talk to a human and have them solve the problem. (The human might use AI to solve the problem)
The point is, this is a large complex future space, and I believe the statement above will age well. AI will move the needle, but at the moment it's future capabilities and effects are also largely speculation.
Or maybe I'm just jaded having seen this cycle a lot, where most fall short, some disappear, amd a few stick around.
How so? I think he's got a point. VC Pumps things with cash, forces them to work well on the surface, and eventually it becomes a thing that isn't so great. Uber pays shit to the drivers and takes a large chunk for themselves. Airbnb is contributing to the housing crisis. What's the problem going to be with AI products 10 or 15 years from now? I think that's a valid question if you look at the history of these types of ventures.
AI may take over the world, but we probably need 2 orders of magnitude of cost reduction, plus a significant improvement in intelligence, plus significant global legislative support, for AI to meet the promises being made right now. To be clear, I do think it'll be transformative, I just think it's "internet" level transformative over a career-long time horizon.
