1 is going to hand the web over to Google and kill the open web

2 is going to happen eventually thanks to the EU

3 never going to happen

You underestimate the power of "defaults". Also one should question Apple why they don't ship Safari on Windows/Linux. They have all the resources available if they care. EU regulates and Apple is here to blame. Protecting their revenues (WebKit). It's only surprising it took this long to regulate. On the other hand US government is laughable at not doing any pro-consumer choices and getting bribes/sudden turns etc. EU here is leading here (protecting customers instead of companies)

#1, not if the EU does some action also against Google's monopoly, similar to how in the US Microsoft was almost split to 2 companies for the same reason

Safari used to have a Windows version but it was so underused Apple canned it.

You're asking for software updates, not hardware updates.

Today is a hardware day.

WWDC (June) is their software day.

true, I will consider switching if the same things are solved for this model in the future