You can stop there. Does 538 have a single model that never changes and never receives human tweaking? Does it in turn rely on third-party polls that also never change their methodology? No, of course it doesn't.
The last sentence illustrates why people's concept of probability is so off. Cards, dice, and roulette wheels are not a model for human events.
You can stop there. Does 538 have a single model that never changes and never receives human tweaking? Does it in turn rely on third-party polls that also never change their methodology? No, of course it doesn't.
The last sentence illustrates why people's concept of probability is so off. Cards, dice, and roulette wheels are not a model for human events.