If anything, I suspect this detailed polling of making elections closer. Millions of voters aren’t reading 538. It’s a distinctly wonky thing to do. But people really into politics, the kind of people who volunteer for campaigns and make large contributions do pay attention and I think it helps rally their support behind realistic candidates for their party so that the candidates put forward for the general elections are as closely matched as possible. Well funded campaigns probably already had their own private polling and statisticians, but 538 helped make sure all highly invested individuals had access to decent data and could deploy their resources more effectively. If you keep that data out of grassroots hands, then you put the parities more firmly under the control of a very small party elite with all the experts.
True. But millions of them will hear a radio announcer, or TV person, or tiktok video or whatever else say something like "In the latest polling, <X> has pulled ahead of <Y> ..." where "the latest polls" will mean (among other things) 538.
I do believe that this has some effect (if small) on patterns of voting (particular by encouraging or discouraging turnout).
Generally speaking, you don’t hear this because 538 is not a poll, it’s a political analysis brand and competitor (ABC news). Most news orgs or journalists quote the polls themselves.
And that will happen no matter what. Polls and prognostications will always exist and probably have always existed back to the first tribal chieftain election. It’s just that instead of getting totally inaccurate predictions that only serve a narrative, for a little while a few of us knew how to get a more unbiased prediction. Now even fewer people will know anything aside from their favorite outlet’s media bubble.
I don't think dragonwriter was weighing in on your broader point, but being a little pedantic (and a lot correct) about what work is done by what people in our electoral coverage.
