What's really curious is that Bitcoin's advocates claim it's the ultimate inflation hedge, "sound money" that will hold its value while "fiat money" is debased.
Then at the exact moment "fiat money" has a spike of inflation at 8% to 10%, the value of the "sound money" inflation hedge plummets 70%.
Now, at the exact instant it appears "fiat money" inflation is moderating, suddenly the "sound money" jumps up 35% from its lows.
Why on Earth would an inflation hedge decline dramatically when inflation shows up, and then increase when the inflation rate declines?
>Then at the exact moment "fiat money" has a spike of inflation at 8% to 10%, the value of the "sound money" inflation hedge plummets 70%.
>Now, at the exact instant it appears "fiat money" inflation is moderating, suddenly the "sound money" jumps up 35% from its lows.
Because a devaluation of the dollar is not what's actually causing the price of BTC to appreciate as much as speculation about the future monetary policy that could come as a result of lower inflation numbers (i.e less hawkish Fed). Which is funny because the way the CPI is calculated has been very controversial and subject to change. One common narrative is that the Fed will be forced to pivot to avoid a major recession.
It's not just BTC but the stock market in general behaving this way.
> Why on Earth would an inflation hedge decline dramatically when inflation shows up, and then increase when the inflation rate declines?
You're not wrong, but this also is a reminder that BLS inflation statistics are not exactly 'inflation'. They actually are more reliable as a harbinger of Federal Reserve policy in coming months, and so have the opposite impact on current asset prices one might expect.
If not the statistic, what is 'inflation'? Well, it's way simpler than the BLS would have you think. When 1BTC goes from $500 to $50,000, that's inflation. Maybe the BLS didn't notice, but you did, it was pretty obvious. This lesson teaches that the issue actually is inflation rolling from one class of goods to another and in this case it's obvious-- where BTC inflated first, a leak of that value out to general goods will result in or reflect a decline in BTC prices, especially where this catches the BLS' attention and signals that the Federal Reserve will do something about it.
It might be the ultimate risk asset. Seriously. There are entire classes of financial models we discarded for involving magic variables which quantified the state of the market's animal spirits. Crypto my let us estimate those.
Then at the exact moment "fiat money" has a spike of inflation at 8% to 10%, the value of the "sound money" inflation hedge plummets 70%.
Now, at the exact instant it appears "fiat money" inflation is moderating, suddenly the "sound money" jumps up 35% from its lows.
Why on Earth would an inflation hedge decline dramatically when inflation shows up, and then increase when the inflation rate declines?