It's not binary. If it weren't for the popular protests in Belarus, Belarus would have probably joined Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus revolution didn't happen (yet), but its men are not dying in Ukraine. Also, this is tangential, but after the war in Ukraine, a significant contingent of Belarussians fighting in Ukraine (for Ukraine) will return to Belarus. Who knows what an armed, war-hardened dissident military faction can do; in contrast, Maidan was won by armed civilians.