The issue with fragmentation that ultimately leads to consolidation is the cost incurred by companies and developers to support all of these platforms.
I can't tell you how much it pains me as an android user to see an app only available for the iPhone. As a developer, it's magnitudes worse to have to send messages to my users saying "we'll be getting to an [x] platform app soon!" when realistically it just stunts our growth to develop the same thing 3 times.
I can't wait for the end of this native app nonsense.
Don't forget that the end of fragmentation can be the end of innovation. It's 2011 and browser standards don't support taking a photo. There's tons of other things that standards don't support and there will be more. And if or when browsers are the only platform, fragmentation will come there. It's already happening, Chrome supports native code, IE will not support the same format.
I was coming strictly from the standpoint of time being the scarcest factor and thus the most important; I completely agree with you on the intellectual satisfaction of developing native apps :)
I can't tell you how much it pains me as an android user to see an app only available for the iPhone. As a developer, it's magnitudes worse to have to send messages to my users saying "we'll be getting to an [x] platform app soon!" when realistically it just stunts our growth to develop the same thing 3 times.
I can't wait for the end of this native app nonsense.