> They keep, and some people on HN, keep calling it a conspiracy when you mention actual inflation is a lot higher than reported, my question is what is this crowd's reasoning?
I wouldn't call it a conspiracy, but throwing out random number like "25-50%" because you noticed your one specific grocery bill is more expensive also isn't an argument I'm going to give much credence to.
The government is actually very transparent about how they calculate inflation and what goes into it, so if you're going to argue that they're bullshitting you need to argue one of:
1. The basket that they use to calculate the price index isn't a good representation of most people.
2. They're fibbing on specific prices.
3. The "smoothing" they always do can hide some of the recent acute inflation.
If you want to make any of those arguments, with data, great! Please go ahead. I've certainly seen plenty of good arguments related to points 1 and 3, not so much point 2. Otherwise, it's fine to say you notice things you buy seem a lot more expensive, but that's not an argument that the Fed is somehow fudging the numbers.
Here's a website that compares CPI today with the way it was calculated in the 1990s and 1980s. Suffice to say, it appears the government is trying to suppress CPI over time. [0]
It doesn't matter what you were referencing. As it's said a million times on HN, throwing out anecdotes is not data. If you have an problem with any of the specifics of how the CPI are calculated, then make it.
Here's a comparison of CPI based on how it is calculated now with how it was calculated in the 1990s and 1980s. [0] There's a pretty clear trend here. Maybe the current calculation is more accurate. But I doubt it. Looks like suppression to me.
I wouldn't call it a conspiracy, but throwing out random number like "25-50%" because you noticed your one specific grocery bill is more expensive also isn't an argument I'm going to give much credence to.
The government is actually very transparent about how they calculate inflation and what goes into it, so if you're going to argue that they're bullshitting you need to argue one of:
1. The basket that they use to calculate the price index isn't a good representation of most people.
2. They're fibbing on specific prices.
3. The "smoothing" they always do can hide some of the recent acute inflation.
If you want to make any of those arguments, with data, great! Please go ahead. I've certainly seen plenty of good arguments related to points 1 and 3, not so much point 2. Otherwise, it's fine to say you notice things you buy seem a lot more expensive, but that's not an argument that the Fed is somehow fudging the numbers.