> In December 2015, Musk predicted "complete autonomy" by 2018. At the end of 2016, Tesla expected to demonstrate full autonomy by the end of 2017, and in April 2017, Musk predicted that in around two years, drivers would be able to sleep in their vehicle while it drives itself. In 2018 Tesla revised the date to demonstrate full autonomy to be by the end of 2019. In February 2019, Musk stated that Tesla's FSD capability would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019. In January 2020, Musk claimed the FSD software would be "feature complete" by the end of 2020, adding that feature complete "doesn't mean that features are working well". In August 2020, Musk stated that 200 software engineers, 100 hardware engineers and 500 "labelers" were working on Autopilot and FSD. In early 2021, Musk stated that Tesla would provide SAE Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021 and that Tesla plans to release a monthly subscription package for FSD in 2021. An email conversation between Tesla and the California Department of Motor Vehicles retrieved via a Freedom of Information Act request by PlainSite contradicts Musk's forward-looking statement.
(Also, incidentally, Musk's decision to use cameras instead of LIDAR – for depth perception etc – is insane and is widely regarded as such. He's doubled down on saying LIDAR is rubbish, since the entire industry has bet on it, and presumably Tesla is too far into the woods to reverse.)
Catchy, but not a particularly good criticism. Few people believe that using cameras for this is impossible, only that it makes the problem so much more difficult that it's insane to think that that's the way to go if your goal is to be a leader in self driving.
Well, it exists. Courtesy of Wikipedia:
> In December 2015, Musk predicted "complete autonomy" by 2018. At the end of 2016, Tesla expected to demonstrate full autonomy by the end of 2017, and in April 2017, Musk predicted that in around two years, drivers would be able to sleep in their vehicle while it drives itself. In 2018 Tesla revised the date to demonstrate full autonomy to be by the end of 2019. In February 2019, Musk stated that Tesla's FSD capability would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019. In January 2020, Musk claimed the FSD software would be "feature complete" by the end of 2020, adding that feature complete "doesn't mean that features are working well". In August 2020, Musk stated that 200 software engineers, 100 hardware engineers and 500 "labelers" were working on Autopilot and FSD. In early 2021, Musk stated that Tesla would provide SAE Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021 and that Tesla plans to release a monthly subscription package for FSD in 2021. An email conversation between Tesla and the California Department of Motor Vehicles retrieved via a Freedom of Information Act request by PlainSite contradicts Musk's forward-looking statement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#Predictions_an...
(Also, incidentally, Musk's decision to use cameras instead of LIDAR – for depth perception etc – is insane and is widely regarded as such. He's doubled down on saying LIDAR is rubbish, since the entire industry has bet on it, and presumably Tesla is too far into the woods to reverse.)