This doesn't actually make sense. Of course it matters how likely the outcome is. We all routinely engage in behaviors for which the worst possible outcome is certain death and we do so because that outcome is rare enough that the benefits outweigh the risk.[0] The base rate matters a lot.
[0] Many of these activities, like, say, driving a car, are probably orders of magnitude more dangerous than, ahem, talking to your neighbor.
Perhaps I should have said it more carefully. One should care about the distribution of outcomes and their magnitudes along multiple axes of impact, plus potential mitigation options.
All this leads me to conclude that sometimes calling the police is the right thing to do, even if the likelihood of retaliation is low.
You hold at least one insurance policy? If so, you understand the rationale in at least one domain.