Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

It looks to me like most Stross's predictions depend first on the event of the Brexit, which has not occurred yet as far as I know.

Here's a map the NY Times published on 6/15/2005:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2005/06/15/business/arm3...

It makes an implicit prediction about the then booming housing market and the sky above it.

On that date, the S&P 500 closed at 1,206.58.

Two years later, in 2007, the S&P 500 closed at 1,522.97.

To the extent that stock markets tell us where we stand as a nation or a society, I find this example instructive.

There's such a thing as the long view. It's hard to know how long it should be. Harder to know whether it will be proved out in the end until it is proved or disproved. Even then sometimes we miss the forest for the trees.

S&P Data: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?period1=1118...



Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: