We're talking about x86 being a monopoly. Without Windows & major developer buy in, Apple's ARM platform would not affect x86 desktop dominance in a significant way. It would be a platform with a significant niche of macOS users, but x86 would remain dominant.
Windows' deployed in places Mac never visited, like the majority of world's government institutions, schools, (Chromebooks aren't big outside U.S. & Western Europe).
You may argue that Apple will have the "high-value" market, but in terms of sheer numbers I don't see them competing with x86 anytime soon.
As for the iPad being "pro", once you're able to develop serious software on the device itself, we may have a discussion, (I am aware of rumors that XCode is present in iPad OS 14, really curious about that). The existing "Pro" apps still lag behind desktop in many areas and no serious programmer or video editor uses iPad OS full time.
To be clear, am not doubting Apple's ARM chips being really competent, just doubt it will unseat x86 on the desktop.
As for ARM on the server, probably eventually it will be the majority, but I'd guess another decade. Current efforts are more experiments than anything.
My fear is also that if something does displace x86, it won't be a clearly superior, relatively open platform to develop for, but rather a patchwork of workload specific vendor ARM chips with entirely proprietary ways to interact with them. In that scenario, I'd rather take x86.
Despite the HN bubble, there are a lot bigger markets for pro users than developers. I would venture to say that from a profit motive, it makes little sense to bring development to the iPad. There is no money in development tools.
For places that must have bespoke internal apps, a lot of them are moving toward dumb clients and some type of Citrix solution.
In terms of “sheer numbers”, the desktop market is minuscule, the laptop market could easily go to ARM if MS could ever figure out a good transition strategy, and the server market runs Linux where power is big as important as overall power consumption.
Don’t you think that Intel would rather be in ARMs position than what it is now? I don’t have numbers on the server market, but outside of that Apple ships more chips than Intel.
Edit: this was just submitted to HN showing the performance of Intel chips to Amazon’s custom designed ARM chips.
Windows' deployed in places Mac never visited, like the majority of world's government institutions, schools, (Chromebooks aren't big outside U.S. & Western Europe).
You may argue that Apple will have the "high-value" market, but in terms of sheer numbers I don't see them competing with x86 anytime soon.
As for the iPad being "pro", once you're able to develop serious software on the device itself, we may have a discussion, (I am aware of rumors that XCode is present in iPad OS 14, really curious about that). The existing "Pro" apps still lag behind desktop in many areas and no serious programmer or video editor uses iPad OS full time.
To be clear, am not doubting Apple's ARM chips being really competent, just doubt it will unseat x86 on the desktop.
As for ARM on the server, probably eventually it will be the majority, but I'd guess another decade. Current efforts are more experiments than anything.
My fear is also that if something does displace x86, it won't be a clearly superior, relatively open platform to develop for, but rather a patchwork of workload specific vendor ARM chips with entirely proprietary ways to interact with them. In that scenario, I'd rather take x86.