I agree. The graphs are very pretty but would look very different if the R0 was even slightly modified. The mortality rates probably varies widely by state demographics as well.
That said, the implication that strict isolation should be maintained is almost certainly correct.
Hey guys - owner of the model in question here. Thanks for your feedback, and yes, the model isn't perfect. Idea is just to give some forward-looking picture for policy-makers to use to make decision.
Interestingly, the model is not nearly as sensitive to R-values as you would think, until they get under 1.5 (half the current observed number in most places).
That said, the implication that strict isolation should be maintained is almost certainly correct.