“electric cars will be ordinary things in 5–10 years; self-driving cars not long after that” If we’re counting things that haven’t happened yet as improvements to our quality of life, why not include a cure for all disease and holidays on Mars?
We were at Carmax (nationwide used car dealer) on Thursday evening and they had probably 15 plug in battery electric "electric cars" on their lot of ~500 cars. Not a significant fraction, but three different models were available to choose from, and competitively priced against the other cars on the lot.
Electric cars are already fairly ordinary in certain parts of the world. Not necessarily the most common, but nobody will give you a second glance now if you have one.
I agree, self-driving cars in about 10 years is extremely optimistic. I'm surprised to see Gwern espouse that view. I think it's revealing of the awesome power of Musk's own reality distortion field.
We aren't even close to a cure for all disease nor holidays on Mars, though.
Electric cars, however, are common in some places (I'm in Norway, and they are everywhere here, and the infrastructure is spreading, both in the private sector and in public street parking). Other places, they are a growing trend that we've been measuring. The growth is picking up.
