I would be surprised if gigafactory 3 cars are exported from China.
From what I understand, most domestically produced, internationally branded vehicles are sold within the county. (Audi, VW, Mercedes all manufacturer cars in China for domestic consumption)
They absolutely will not be exported from China. They will sell every single TM3 they can make in GF3 in China locally, taking advantage of all the cost savings, tax savings, and incentives along the way.
But GF3 is what will push them from 8,500/wk ultimately to above 10,000/wk, and depending on exactly how quickly that ramp happens in Q4 will determine whether they end the year with 360k, or 380k cars sold.
They will head into 2020 at or close to an annualized production rate of 500k, which is what Elon predicted back in February. [1]
Assuming no further increases at Fremont, this requires GF3 to be producing at a rate of ~2,250/wk. Tesla has stated they expect to be producing between 1,000 - 2,000 cars per week at GF3 by the end of the year, rising to 3,000/wk in 2020. So more likely there are still some gains to be made in Fremont before the end up the year in order to hit 500k annualized.
By comparison Fremont was making 2,250/wk roughly 1 year after the first TM3 was produced (July 2017 - July 2018). This goes to show how much faster the production ramp can be the second time around. Unlike the first time when Tesla had never mass produced s vehicle before and was expecting “production hell”.
