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If you click on Max, the chart indicates that the smart money expected the 10 yr inflation rate in late 2008 to be < .5%, which wasn't the case.


So downward movement in that chart can be triggered by two things. The price of TIPS falling or the price of t-bonds rising. That was caused by the price of t-bonds jumping up due to a flight to safe money, much of that flight contractually obligated.

So I don't think it was due to people honestly thinking the average inflation would be .5% but just an idiosyncrasy of how we estimate market expectations of inflation.




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