Al-Mabhouh's number was clearly up. The article sensationalises the diplomatic damage between Israel and the US/UK-- it's called blowback and the Mossad was willing to pay the price if mistakes were made. Operations this complex rarely come off flawlessly, but it was very well done, "good enough" you might say. With their objective accomplished and their agents disappeared before Hamas knew what was going on, the mission was a success.
Bergman may be well known but he's a sensationalist, making a living off "exposing unpublic information". Don't be surprised if he gets into UFOs at some point. I would take everything he writes with a grain of salt.
It seems like the operation was tactically a great success, but strategically a failure.
The agents seem to have been very well trained and carried out their task very effectively.
There has been serious negative fall-out, though, including the unmasking of a number of important agents, and worsening ties with Dubai and the countries whose passports were forged.
I'd say you have it backward. Tactically, mistakes were made. But strategically this mission was a huge success: they eliminated their target-- the goal of the whole operation.
People saying that Mossad messed up by getting caught on camera never really made sense to me. They clearly knew they were going to be on camera, and they had to have known that that footage would be reviewed in the future. Since they knew they were going to be on camera but did it anyway, it pretty clearly was a risk they calculated and decided was an acceptable payoff. Currently it looks like nearly 30 people were directly involved, and authorities have nothing to show for it but the arrest of an accomplice or two, and month old rumors of another single arrest. They might have pictures of the people involved, but it hasn't helped them actually do anything about it.
As for political fallout... what political fallout? They got some bad press on the evening news but do you think they actually give a damn about that? Other countries sent a political message scolded them for using fake passports, and they sent a pretty clear political message: that they are willing to kill anyone they don't like, and no amount of cameras will stop them.
I really have a hard time seeing the people who planned this doing anything other than patting themselves on the back for a job well done.
This was very much seen as a fiasco in Israel, by the general public and reportedly by Mossad itself. Mossad director Meir Dagan had to step down recently, almost certainly as result of the Dubai debacle.
Yes, but like I said that was just collateral damage and predicted. Mossad knew the passports would be traced back to the UK. They took the PR hit in order to achieve the greater goal.
Oh, I totally agree-- this was the point of my earlier comment about it being tactically "good enough" but not perfect. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that they knew all about the CCTV coverage in the hotel. I also think you're spot on about the blowback on the British passports. It was all calculated risk. In general, the article underestimates the technical savvy of Mossad-- see Stuxnet.
Going to take a dive here from Mossad fanboys, but Stuxnet can just as well (if not more likely) be a U.S. product, precisely due to its technical sophistication.
More likely a combination of both: Mossad for the details of what is inside Iran's program and deploying the worm, and the US for the technical skills to build it.
Israeli software skills are excellent. Of all the assets the US could provide, that's one Israel doesn't need and likely wouldn't accept. The US could provide electronic surveillance: locations of people, details of local police operations, satellite photos, etc.
While technically it can be done by anyone in the world, it takes certain thriving technology culture to ensure that enough smart people penetrate the ranks of employees in government bureaucracies. Israel's overall IT scene is non-remarkable, not any more than one of Sweden or Greece.
The USA on the other hand, has decades-long successful track record of industrial sabotage involving computers, and NSA alone probably employs more talent than Mossad could ever afford to.
Israel doesn't just recruit from Israel. They recruit from Jews internationally.
This is a major part of their strength. How many brilliant Jewish software people live in the USA? Those are the people Israel would recruit, along with their homegrown talent.
Having said that I agree that the NSA would be more qualified than Israel at creating Stuxnet.
I hate to burst your bubble but as someone who's gone through stuxnet with a fine toothcomb more than once, there's nothing (as expected with decently written malware) that is directly attributable to a single country or intelligence service.
Stuxnet has been heavily sensationalised by the media, who like the idea of intrigue more than the reality that this is a (predominantly) untargeted (it hit more targets in India than Iran when I was looking at it) but highly sophisticated piece of malware, but nothing that couldn't have been written by a decent pen test team in a few months.
Is it a CNE (Computer Network Exploitation) act? Possibly, and the presence of Scada exploits indicates the possibility. But bear in mind that there are CANVAS (http://www.immunitysec.com/) packs that have 0day SCADA exploits in them and they aren't written buy governments.
I suspect that they have to constantly tweak those anyway. They do not have any guarantee that the opponent hasn't got the patterns even if the mission had no obvious failures.
The Dubai could as well have kept this under the rug, hoping to trap the agents on their next mission.
It's hard to tell without knowing the whole picture. For example - how bad was the actual reaction of the countries whose passports were forged? I mean real actions like curbing cooperation with the Israeli intelligence, not the formal gestures.
Mossad's "goal of the whole operation" is to safeguard the jewish state. It's not clear whether assasinating a Hamas leader was worth the price they ended up paying.
This is interesting: "Any operative trying to reach a colleague—whether in the hotel down the street or at the command post in Israel—dialed one of a handful of numbers in Austria, from which the call was then rerouted to its destination. But since dozens of calls were made to and from this short list of Austrian numbers over a period of less than two days, the moment that the cover of a single operative was blown and his cell phone records became available to the authorities, all others who called or received calls from the same numbers were at risk of being identified."
Given that the agents have had enough time to leave Dubai, I wonder how did the authorities identify the initial phone number whose billings were checked. Have the agents called an easily identifiable hotel landline?
If they had some footage of the spys making phone calls and had precise times for that footage they would have been able to match up calls with the cell towers in the area.
"Take yourselves and your bank accounts and your weapons and your forged fucking passports and get out of my country," - Lieutenant General Dhahi Khalfan Tamim, chief of the Dubai Police
Have a look at the article, the quote in question was said on the phone to some higher-up in Hamas after it was discovered they were operating undercover doing shady business in Dubai
There are tricks for unlocking it with something as simple as rubber bands. ( http://blackbag.nl/?p=1315 )
There are also tools for sale that go under the door for manipulating such locks. I imagine those could be used to replace the chain. ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAkJRpKeyYg )
It should be even easier than unlocking it since you have access from the inside to set something up that you could pull from the outside after closing the door.
The curious thing isn't so much that it could be done, but that they apparently were able to do it without spending any time fidgeting with the door.
The best way I could think of would involve something like a bent coat hanger, a chewed piece of bubble gum, and a small inspection mirror stuck through the crack in the door. It would take a while even for a practiced hand.
That still sounds like a solution when you're restricted to only accessing one side of the door. They might be able to rig something up before they leave the room that is much easier to execute after they close the door and without looking.
A string with adhesive, attached to the end of the chain, run over to the open door and under the edge of the locking plate. Then under the door. Close the door, pull the string, door is locked and string comes off. No evidence, takes two seconds. It might need a little tweaking but sounds plausible.
It is a bit sensational, but I suppose that is to be expected.
>... the trafficking of huge amounts of rockets and sophisticated weaponry into Gaza, which have been used to devastating effect since the start of the second intifada in 2000.
I don't think the weapons smuggled into were particularly sophisticated and I don't think they were used to devastating effect at all.
The structural devestation has certainly been significantly less than many other devestations I could name which are happening contemperaneously.
However, I can't speak for the psychological (and other forms) of devestation that may be happening in Ashdod and Sderot. I would like to know more about that.
The constant trickle of rockets creates a very poor incentive for any economic development, leaving an already troubled region in a spiraling economic downturn and brain drain for those who are able to leave. Other effects will surely be realized as time goes by, the constant disruption of the education system in the entire region comes to mind.
Are we speaking about the Israeli or the Palestinian side of the border? On one side economic development maybe suppressed, but across the border people struggle for the basic necessities of life. As everyone knows, there is no easy solution to this except for both parties to redress their mistakes. As long as there is oppression and no justice, both will be the losers.
Assuming this is in fact, Gaza city, if there is indeed a market for iPhone 4s and they have high end refrigerators stores, I think this is a wealth distribution problem. Clearly there is high poverty in Gaza (60% according to one article I read), but also there is a substantial middle class.
Ashdod was first attacked in 2008. Sderot has been under attack since the start of the second intifada, and back then most of the time home-made and Qassam rockets were used, not "sophisticated" weaponry. And while I do recognize and appreciate the psychological damage caused to citizens, when looked at in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the damage seems minimal.
I don't think the author needed to sensationalize the point about Al-Mabhouh being a weapons smuggler for a terrorist group. I think most people would understand why Israel wanted him eliminated.
If anyone is interested in further reading I can recommend "The Other Side of Deception" by former Mossad officer Victor Ostrovsky. (Note that this is the sequel to "By Way of Deception" by the same author, it is more informational and matter-of-fact than the first book.)
Downvote me if you will, but I do not think this article belong on the front page of Hacker news. It is a interesting illuminating article but it belongs on Reddit or even Slashdot.
Read the guidlines -- "anything that gratifies one's intellectual curiosity" is the short and sweet rule. I find well written pieces about things I normally don't know much about intellectually gratifying. More so, actually, than yet another "awesome vim tricks (that any reasonably experienced user already knows)" or "look at this awesome revolutionary thing in node.js (that turns out to be a standard async pattern)".
As long as we are cherry picking text from guidelines to support our POV, here is my pick " ..If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic. "
And you'll notice that the BBC and CNN reports don't have any of the background or details that would give you intellectual gratification. "Mossad killed a guy, here are all the press releases we were sent" like the BBC and CNN news certainly wouldn't belong on Hackers News, but I think this article does.
Facebook has been 'covered on TV news' also, and hell a movie has been made about it. Would you call an interesting article about Facebook something that shouldn't be on Hacker news because it was covered on TV?
"if they'd cover it on TV News, it's probably off-topic"
Keyword being probably. In any case the OP is right. This post gratifies one's intellectual curiosity (or at least mine, though it seems like most of HN thinks the same), and is a breath of fresh air in comparison to the dozens of Vim tips type of posts you find throughout the day.
Another "cherry picked" phrase from on-topic is "That includes more than just hacking and startups". Note also that I have now quoted more of the On-topic guidelines than I have left out.
As for the TV thing -- were you sure to bitch about the topicality of the iPhone release based on this guideline? What about the "stolen" iPhone? How about anything wikileaks related? All the stuff posted here about academia? Do math papers count -- they are not actually about hacking, just about maths, frequently with no direct relation to hacking.
"bitch" -- no never. I only express my disagreement.
Nobody posted "stolen" iPhone story here 6 months after the fact. The Dubai news story has been covered on TV and is very old. More cherry picked quote from the guidelines -- "Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports ...."
You are right , hacking is not just about node.js. Personally speaking, I love articles from Academia , and maths , even when they are not related to programming languages.
This article is a stale crime/politics/current affairs type of story that does not belong here.
Tomorrow, if someone posted an article with in-depth analysis of the stolen iPhone affair, including retrospectives about how this affected iPhone4 hype, how it affected sales, and how it has affected TechCrunch's reputation, would you complain? Note -- I am specifically mentioning the new content because it is directly mappable to the parent article, there is stuff in TFA that has not ever been compiled as a single source for outsiders and those with casual interest to pick up on.
As for your cherry picking -- you are obviously pretty bad at it: most does not mean all, which means this story should be investigated on the grounds of "is it like the bulk of other political and crime stories". This article is unlike well over 90% of crime and politics stories, both on the face of it an on deeper inspection. Those other stories simply report crime with vague speculation on motive, and no details on follow-up. Political stories are usually he-said/she-said pieces on the fights between personalities. This doesn't match those, and therefore doesn't qualify as "most". Good try, tho!
I knew the basic outline of this story beforehand and yet I read the article anyway.
A few new things that stood out:
- the description of Dagan's mgmt style and how it negatively affected the mission
- the way the author (a presumably non-techie) described the lock picking and practicing of lock picking (did the picker actually test the picking of the locks as the author suggests or did the team assume the locks would be electronic and simply bring a device that could pick any known lock?). the author glosses over this and makes a short inference, but it made me wonder.
- the Austrian private switchboard. i didn't know this kind of thing existed. can i get access to one?
So I agree with comments from many other people about it just being an interesting story, but those are 3 bits that made me think and made it worth my time.
