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Nope, never.

I have seen more success in cases where teams estimate for 90% percent confidence instead of 50% confidence. By that I mean "it should almost never take longer than that" vs. "it will probably take that long." Unfortunately, to do that, you need enlightened business management that appreciates the difference between an estimate and a promise, as opposed to business management that pays lip service to the distinction.



> "it should almost never take longer than that" vs. "it will probably take that long."

This sounds like a much better way to estimate. Do you have any links to content discussing this?


Here's an article that explains the phenomenon much better than I can. It made its rounds in HN a week or two ago: https://erikbern.com/2019/04/15/why-software-projects-take-l...

I haven't seen a good way to turn the concept of "it should almost never take longer than that" into a concrete process. I've always seen it as a gut check, often implemented as "take your initial estimate and double/triple it." What I actually see is that a lot of teams implement that but walk back the doubling when the business/PM delegation persistently asks for more in less time. Only in really engineer driven cultures have I seen engineering teams successfully push back.


On the actual use and calibration of confidence intervals - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybYBCK9D7MZCcdArB/how-to-mea...




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