You should have visibility by past behavior. A company that has a history of lay-offs is going to do it again. A company that has managed downturns without layoffs is likely to do pull it off again.
Of course a company can change, so you have to be prepared for anything. This isn't a bad idea for other reasons: there are a lot of people right now not living at home because of the California fires which requires some emergency savings.
Germany companies are heavily incentivized not to lay off people in downturns. Workers here are generally less mobile (esp. outside of tech) so when you loose an employee and then go somewhere else, they’ll probably never come back.
The federal government has programs to assist companies with this. With the approval of the goverment, you can impose “Kurzarbeit” and let your employees only work, for example, 3 days a week for 6 months. The other 2 days a week they’d then get“Kurzarbeitergeld”, equivalent in amount to unemployment benefits (~65% of your net salary). This obviously only gets approved in economic downturns or for things outside of the control of the company (weather, natural disaster), not of one company is mismanaged but the sector as a whole does well.
That is the complete opposite of what happens in the US.
At one company that I worked for, one guy was laid off and came back 4 or 5 times on contract in different roles (QA, L2 support, and as a field technician).
I see both sides. As someone in a high demand field in an area with plenty of tech jobs (not on the west coast), it doesn’t bother me personally. I have literally gone from “I want another job” to “Ive got another job” within less than a month on numerous occasions.
If I were hiring, I would be a lot more reluctant to hire someone if I knew I couldn’t let them go without a lot of red tape. I might just try to get by with fewer people.
But, I consider myself to be a big government free market capitalist. Make hiring and laying off easy and provide a large social safety net paid for by taxing corporations- a better form of unemployment insurance.
Of course a company can change, so you have to be prepared for anything. This isn't a bad idea for other reasons: there are a lot of people right now not living at home because of the California fires which requires some emergency savings.