>> job re-training, which will be a big part of the shift.
To me there's no other way to look at this other than having faith in our ability to find work to do. Wherever there is deficiency in technology, humans will find a way to fill in. Now the question is whether this will be at the same scale, and will there always be gaps to fill in. No one knows. We never have known. We've just blindly innovated and had faith. It's worked so far. Until it doesn't we will probably just continue doing it.
In other words, this is and has always been unplannable. An example. When DARPA invented the internet, no one explicitly said "We're going to put a bunch of mail staff, brick and mortar commerce employees, etc, out of work so we better ensure we train programmers to help fill the void."
>> When DARPA invented the internet..b&m employees.. programmers
As for being less brick-and-mortar employees ? i think that was an historical trend, so it makes sense it will continue, supported by tech.
Also It's somewhere between 1960 and 1970(darpa and the internet), i think. But Moore made his law in 1965. So we guess that in 2017 computers are extremely abundant and fast, connected at high speeds(moore + internet), and we know they are versatile.
So we can guess they'll have many uses(and a lot of room for imagining), and maybe we'll need many programmers for that.
But jobless people are a resource that entrepreneurs will find a way to utilize for profit. It's not that the technology will require new kinds of work, but that idle people will enable new kinds of companies.
I think that Uber/Lyft/Prime Now/etc were enable because of high unemployment / low participation rates.
To me there's no other way to look at this other than having faith in our ability to find work to do. Wherever there is deficiency in technology, humans will find a way to fill in. Now the question is whether this will be at the same scale, and will there always be gaps to fill in. No one knows. We never have known. We've just blindly innovated and had faith. It's worked so far. Until it doesn't we will probably just continue doing it.
In other words, this is and has always been unplannable. An example. When DARPA invented the internet, no one explicitly said "We're going to put a bunch of mail staff, brick and mortar commerce employees, etc, out of work so we better ensure we train programmers to help fill the void."
I'm with you though; it concerns me.