Also: even if you could create an excellent predictor with the right inputs, a tiny startup wouldn't be able to collect the inputs -- including inside/detailed info -- all by itself. So starting as a service to the people who can demand such info (investors) makes sense -- and if it works, then they can "raise a fund themselves and beat the tar out of" the old guard. That's how it usually works in finance -- prove yourself first in the service of others, then once you have a track record, run your own show.
Totally agree. A pitch as a service to provide data points makes so much more sense - provide contacts, connections, past track record, competition profile, team profile, current user base, marketing efforts etc.. would be excellent.