Client: You styled my house 3 months ago it is still not sold! You said it would sell much more quickly!
Stylist: Your house was moved from the population of un-styled houses to the population of styled houses. This population has a different mean time-before-being-sold but it still has long tails, I'm sorry you are in that tail.
Btw: "a rational buyer ensures the seller has a good return policy rather than trying to use Baye's rule to analyse their past purchase experiences."
Sounds to me like one would first look for priors that confirm that good return policy, one does not pull trust out of thin air.
Stylist: Your house was moved from the population of un-styled houses to the population of styled houses. This population has a different mean time-before-being-sold but it still has long tails, I'm sorry you are in that tail.
Btw: "a rational buyer ensures the seller has a good return policy rather than trying to use Baye's rule to analyse their past purchase experiences." Sounds to me like one would first look for priors that confirm that good return policy, one does not pull trust out of thin air.