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We know of examples where companies have wildly exceeded their hype, even though we later find out that the hype was unjustified at the time. There are also examples where it can be argued that shareholders did so well because founders maintained unusual levels of control through slippery methods, then made decisions that no one else in their right mind would have made.

I don't have a prediction about the future of Theranos, yet when new information confirms shadiness in one context or confirms that it is in the mould of other successes in another context, then thinking that it proves the context is the definition of confirmation basis.



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