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I'm not sure this is a paradox. There are 2 expected outcomes. All the added outcomes rely on the experimenter to disrespect the set rules.

This is a conditional probability with a hard to predict condition (ie. human factor) portrayed as a non-conditional probability. This looks more like a bad representation of a problem rather than a paradox.

This reminds me of my youth. Regardless of the project I was trying to accomplish, as soon as my little brother got involved, all bets where off. He was a hard to predict little bugger.



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