Alien Clay is also fantastic. I don’t want to spoil anything, but I think it gives the best intuition I’ve seen for a scientific concept that can be difficult to really grok otherwise.
Just finished it, and while I loved the whole plot, the adventurous expeditions away from the base, somehow this one with the waaay too long paragraphs seemed... Unnecessarily boring?
My first Tchaikovsky was children of time and TBH none of the sequels nor his other space operas were as captivating as that one for me.
Yet, I will read this one too. I believe that his ideas and stories are great in books and would never be able to make them into movies. So unique.
The elephant's dad was such a fascinating creature, and the way he described it keening in the distance at night reminded me of the amalgamation creatures from Annihilation. I loved Alien Clay – I hope we get a sequel because the world was so interesting.
> Suppose you're on an island where the economy only produces coconuts.
This is why nobody takes economists seriously. What you lose in simplifying down to this model is literally everything. The coconut economy has zero predictive power.
In the real world, distribution effects dramatically affect the functioning of the economy, because workers are also consumers and owners of capital are siphoning off the purchasing power of their customers. Productivity isn’t the question in the modern economy - we’re already massively overproducing just about everything - our problem is both our wealth and production allocations are borderline suicidal.
>This is why nobody takes economists seriously. What you lose in simplifying down to this model is literally everything. The coconut economy has zero predictive power.
A simplified model is needed otherwise rigorous analysis becomes impossible, and people make handwavy arguments about how paying workers more means they can spend more, which means factories, and it's a perpetual growth machine!
>we’re already massively overproducing just about everything
No we're not. If we weren't, we shouldn't have seen the massive inflation near the end of covid. The supply disruptions hit almost immediately, but it wasn't until the stimmy checks hit that inflation went up.
>our problem is both our wealth and production allocations are borderline suicidal.
If you read my previous comments more carefully, you'd note that I'm not arguing against better wages for workers as a whole, only that contrary to what some people claim, they don't pay for themselves.
> A simplified model is needed otherwise rigorous analysis becomes impossible, and people make handwavy arguments about how paying workers more means they can spend more, which means factories, and it's a perpetual growth machine!
I'm no economist but you can't live on an island that only produces coconuts, because the people on that island would quickly start producing other stuff, breaking your premise.
This is like saying cash is useless because amoeba haven't evolved a cash economy.
> A simplified model is needed otherwise rigorous analysis becomes impossible
If your tools aren’t capable of rigorous analysis of a model that retains enough detail to capture the salient features of the thing they’re trying to model, they’re not the tools for the job.
What's the "salient feature" that's missing? From all the other replies it sounds like people are still relying on the handwavy argument that "pay workers more -> workers spend more -> you can pay workers more -> repeat", but can't articulate where the actual growth is coming from. If this is true, the communism would have beaten capitalism, because they would be able to exploit this better than any capitalist system, but obviously that didn't happen.
Overall this feels like troll physics[1]. Yes, the idea that having a magnet pull you forward, which itself is pushed forward by you moving forward sounds superficially plausible as well, but it doesn't pencil out in reality. The only difference is that "the economy" is complex enough it's non-trivial to disprove, and people can handwave away any objections.
Multiple products. Multiple employers. A currency distinct from a consumable product.
A simplified model could be useful, but yours goes too far.
It doesn't take into account effects like that by paying more you can attract more, and more productive workers. Or that it puts pressure on other employers to increase wages.
> but can't articulate where the actual growth is coming from
I am not an economist, but I think one situation where this works is where you are competing for workers with other employers that have high margins, and pay their workers relatively little. In that case one of two things happens. Either other employers also increase wages, leading to their workers also having more money, which they can spend on your product, or they don't compete on wages, and you can outcompete them in getting the best workers.
The key is that total productivity doesn't necessarily improve, but wealth distribution becomes more equitable.
As it sits, all of the members of your coconut economy are going to be dead of malnutrition or exposure in relatively short order, so maybe address that and then we can work our way up to the flaws in the economic theory that drove the greatest wealth expansion and boom in consumer spending the world has ever seen.
The salient feature is that people consume a higher percentage of their wages than investors do of their wealth. Redistributing some profits to wages means that money gets spent, inducing demand. This also has a higher multiplier effect than profits, because consumer spending can move through the economy multiple times in a measurement period.
> No we're not. If we weren't, we shouldn't have seen the massive inflation near the end of covid. The supply disruptions hit almost immediately, but it wasn't until the stimmy checks hit that inflation went up.
What? The first Covid stimulus checks were April 2020. 271 billion in 2020 here per here: https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-to-know-about-all-three-ro.... 135B of the second round by Mar 2021. The third started about then. Inflation - and consumer activity in most areas - was low because nobody was going anywhere still, but at least we did a fair job of avoiding mass unemployment and homelessness.
Then inflation started accelerating during the economy's broader reopening in April 2021 (2.6 -> 4.2 percent from March). It didn't peak until near the end of 2022. Those stimulus checks were LONG gone by then for most people, since a huge portion of the country lives paycheck to paycheck, and the stimulus checks weren't available to people making more than 80-100k (single or avg-per-person in a married couple), which is the higher-income demographic that would have the disposable income to really drive inflation across the board by a "let's buy stuff we wouldn't otherwise" splashy purchase.
Instead, inflation was driven by people getting back out and doing/buying all the shit that had all been scaled down. The first stimulus checks didn't drive it because people weren't purchasing as broadly yet, and were still more in panic mode. Textbook bullwhip effect; at steady state we produced more than enough and never saw shortages, then in Covid demand types and volumes shifted enough to cause shortages of certain things and surpluses of far more other "non-quarantine consumer" things, so production changed, and then when things started to go back to normal ALL those things got hit again. I don't know if I'd agree that we're "massively" overproducing everything now that we're not in a quarantine scenario again, but the consistency of supply of most normal things suggests a lot of excess capacity in the system to absorb normal fluctuations in a way that nobody ever has to think about where their next roll of toilet paper is coming from again.
These are still very early days for RISC-V, but I’m always happy to see things progress in this space. No, this isn’t a viable desktop for the average consumer, but if it makes the architecture more accessible for the types of weirdos who tend to pave the way for the rest of us, it’s good.
If this is spiking some nostalgia for anyone, there’s a bit of a cottage industry in modernized motherboards for old thinkpads - eg, https://www.tpart.net/about-x210ai/
Be sure to watch the video itself* - it’s really a great piece of work. The energy is frenetic and it’s got this beautiful balance of surrealism from the effects and groundedness from the human performances.
* (Mute it if you don’t like the music, just like the rest of us will if you complain about the music)
Similarly, the music video for Taylor Swif[0] (another track by A$AP Rocky) is just as surrealistic and weird in the best way possible, but with an eastern european flavor of it (which is obviously intentional and makes sense, given the filming location and being very on-the-nose with the theme).
I can see how this kind of videos can attract the tiktok addicts with less than 3 seconds of attention time.
I wonder what will be the state of cinema/series/video clips in 30 years? Will singers/rappers give up sentences completely and just mention names of emojis? Will we have to use screens at 576hz to be able to watch acclerated videos without seeing a constant blur?
I guess most kids from today would fall asleep before the end of the generic of Twin Peaks or the opening scene of Fargo.
I’ve lived in my rental for ~15 years now (rent control) - to be honest, if I’d known when I moved in how long I’d be here, I’d have paid for some upgrades. It’s not equity, but I do still live here.
Even without rent control, being known by the landlord as a reliable tenant in a troubled apartment/building... is a way to eventually have one of the least expensive apartments in an area, through a series of only small rent increases.[1]
Every little repair and upgrade I've made has been more than worthwhile, and I only wish I had made more.
Though, a friend in a nicer place went and made a deal with his landlord, for landlord to pay for only materials for substantial DIY renovation friend would do. Suddenly, his apartment had higher market value...
[1] Unless landlord participates in RealPage/YieldStar, and is pushed to illegal price-fixing.
FWIW, https://indowwindows.com/ (San Francisco) make window inserts that are the exact same size as the existing window, plus a wooden frame, so they look exactly like the existing windows. Mostly for keeping the exterior look of buildings in SF due to regulations, they block out sound and help with temperature control. They're pricey tho.
As for solar. If you have the budget and the disaster preparedness for it, there are some camping grade solar + battery systems that aren't house-grade, but great for power outages. The systems range from small (affordable), to the 1000 Plus, consisting of a battery with 1264Wh capacity and 120 v inverter, along with 200W of solar panels. That one'll run. you $1,500.
Do you have an Indow? I’ve been eyeballing them for a while, but they’re pricy enough I haven’t been willing to call the shot yet.
I do have a pretty big bluetti and a couple panels for it - I also grabbed an RV fridge for storing food. Naturally, the capitalist gods smiled upon my financial offering and have blessed me with steady power since then.
I've had a bunch of windows replaced over time. It is expensive but some had gotten really ugly looking--in addition to being, I'm sure very inefficient. I have oil heat and have just never seen the justification for solar especially given my electrical usage and all the scammy solar stuff out there.
This article repeatedly cites revenue growth numbers as an indicator of Nvidia and Apple’s relative health, which is a very particular way of looking at things. By way of another one, Apple had $416Bn in revenue, which was a 6% increase from the prior year, or about $25Bn, or about all of Nvidia’s revenue in 2023. Apple’s had slow growth in the last 4 years following a big bump during the early pandemic; their 5 year revenue growth, though, is still $140Bn, or about $10Bn more than Nvidia’s 2025 revenues. Nvidia has indeed grown like a monster in the last couple years - 35Bn increase from 23-24 and 70Bn increase from 24-25. Those numbers would be 8% and 16% increases for Apple respectively, which I’m sure would make the company a deeply uninteresting slow-growth story compared to new upstarts.
I get why the numbers are presented the way they are, but it always gets weird when talking about companies of Apple’s size - percent increases that underwhelm Wall Street correspond to raw numbers that most companies would sacrifice their CEO to a volcano to attain, and sales flops in Apple’s portfolio mean they only sold enough product to supply double-digit percentages of the US population.
It’s also strange because I highly doubt Google has manufactured a billion physical units of anything. Most of their consumer hardware is designed and built by partners, including Pixel.
I think there's something about both the myth of the unicorn and of the hero founder/CEO in tech that forces a push towards legibility and easy narratives for a company - it means that, to a greater degree than other industries, large tech companies are a storytelling exercise, and "giant corporate blob that sprawls into everything" isn't a sexy story, nor is "consistent 3% YoY gains," even when that's translating into "we added the GDP of a medium-sized country to our cash pile again this year."
Every time a CEO or company board says "focus," an interesting product line loses its wings.
It's because the storytelling needed for Wall Street. It's the only way to get sky high revenue multiples, selling a dream, because if you're a conglomerate all you can do is to sell the P&L - it's like selling an index.
If you have a business division that's does exceedingly well compared to the rest, you make more money by spinning it off.
I think Asian companies are much less dependent on public markets and have as strong private control (chaebols in South Korea for example - Samsung, LG, Hyundai etc).
If you look at US companies that are under "family control" you might see a similar sprawl, like Cargill, Koch, I'd even put Berkshire in this class even though it's not "family controlled" in the literal sense, it's still associated with two men and not a professional CEO.
Because shares are no longer about investing in a company that is making healthy margins and has a solid business, that will pay you a decent dividend in return for your investment.
Shares are a short-term speculative gamble; you buy them in the hope that the price will rise and then you can sell them for a profit. Sometimes the gap between these two events is measured in milliseconds.
So the only thing that matters to Wall St is growth. If the company is growing then its price will probably rise. If it's not, it won't. Current size is unimportant. Current earnings are unimportant (unless they are used to fund growth). Nvidia is sexy, Apple is not, despite all the things you say (which are true).
> Nvidia has indeed grown like a monster in the last couple years - 35Bn increase from 23-24 and 70Bn increase from 24-25.
Worringly for Nvidia, Apple is producing products people want and are provenly useful, thus a vast majority of its value is solid, so revenue streams for fabs Apple uses is solid.
Nvidia on the other hand, is producing tangible things of value, GPUs, but which are now largely used in unproven technologies (when stacked against lofty claims) that barely more than a few seem to want, so Nvidia's revenue stream seems flimsy at best in the AI boom.
The only proven revenue stream Nvidia has (had?) is GPUs for display and visualisation (gaming, graphics, and non-AI non-crypto compute, etc.)
Calling AI an unproven market is a wild statement. My mother and every employed person around me is using AI backed by Nvidia GPUs in some way or the other on a daily basis.
The AI market is running on VC and hype fumes right now, costing way more than it brings in. Add to that the circular financing, well, statements, in the hundreds of billions of dollars that are treated as contracts instead of empty air, and compare that to Apple, where the money is actually there and profitable, and the comparison makes sense.
It may still be profitable for TSMC to use NVidia to funnel all the juicy VC game money to themselves, but the statement about proven vs unproven revenue stream is true. It'll be gone with the hype, unless something truly market changing comes along quickly, not the incremental change so far. People are not ready to pay the full costs of AI, it's that simple right now.
Unproven in the sense that it'll become 'super intelligent', et al.
For a statistical word salad generator that is _generally_ coherent, sure it's proven.
But for other claims, such as replacing all customer service roles[1], to the lament of customers[2], and now that a number of companies are re-hiring staff they sacked because 'AI would make them redundant'[3] still make me strongly assert that Generative AI isn't the trillion dollar industry it is trying to market itself as.
Sure it has a few tricks, and helps in a number of cases, therefore is useful in those cases, but it isn't an 'earth-shattering mass-human-redundancy' technology, that colossally stupid amounts of circular investments are being poured into it which, I argue, makes fabs mostly, if not solely, dedicating themselves to AI are now in a precarious position when the AI bubble collapses.
It might matter that Nvidia sells graphics cards and Apple sells computers and computer-like devices with cases and peripherals and displays and software and services. TSMC is responsible for a much larger proportion of Nvidia's product than Apple's.
I'm not even sure how to compare revenue, whether relative or absolute, when Nvidia is deeply involved in multiple deals that have all the signs of circular financing scams.
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