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This was pure gambling. Unless he statistically did the sums (nothing mentioned in the article), this was pure and simple gambling (probably going off candlestick trading which is big in Japan). In the finance world, this is also called dumb money.

Remember kids, there are two types of traders:

  1. Quants

  2. Gamblers
Know which one you are.


From your generalisation we can then say that LTCM falls under "Quants", and Warren Buffet under "Gamblers".


Warren buffet is definitely a quant (he does his homework) even if he doesn't use heavy duty math (though I'm sure he has access to that).


Then you are using the wrong term. Value investors (those who use models such as DCF and DDM) are not considered 'quants' in the investment community. My point is, quants can be speculators too (and more often than not they are). I just wanted to point out (in a somewhat pedantic manner) that the above comment is just a random comment, without any substance.


3. The ones who use inside information.


Put lipstick on a pig it's still a pig.

Gamblers come in various forms, some like the thrill, some make informed wagers and some use inside information. Not sure what makes a 'Quant' so different.


Sounds like wankers to me.


I've worked at places that have acronym monikers and complicated hiring processes to gauge "culture fit." Mostly I find them tedious and time-consuming, so naturally I'm not a good fit.

But hey, whatever works for them...


Fair. I'm sure I'm a wanker at times just like everyone else. Our team is amazing, super friendly and love working together which is the real thing I care about.


Aunt Tilly won't be switching to Chrome. She will continue to use Internet Explorer 6 with the Yahoo! and Ask toolbars, but russian bride popup all while partying like it's 1999.


True enough, unless a family member installed Firefox with an IE theme for them and changed the icon, which I have seen happen before. Either way, a user without a clue will switch without understanding the underlying issues.


Unfortunately I can't pay the mortgage by hopes and dreams.


1) I'm not even going to entertain that one. I'm doing this the right way.

2) That's a good point. I have considered looking at the funding route but with being so close to launch it feels like I'm wasting equity when all I need to do is just temporarily put aside these emotions and keep on trucking.


For point 1) I don't think they necessarily have to be mutually exclusive. If there is a new tech that would be useful to learn for both work and side project, then try to get a chance to learn it on work time.


College is probably the wrong place for me right now. But apart from that your advice is very much welcomed and appreciated. Unfortunately loved ones and physical activities have had little attention lately. I'll keep myself in check here.


I am totally enjoying it as the light at the end of the tunnel is almost there and have learned a bunch. But I'm not yet ready to pull the cord and go full time until it has replaced my current income and then some.


> until it has replaced my current income

The metric to watch isn't how secure it makes you feel. It's growth. A startup is a company designed to grow.

One advantage a full time job offers is you can afford to take the risk of building something daring that takes more time to identify. A funded startup pressured for growth might otherwise miss this part.

The constraint of having little free time makes you work only on what's important. Which incidentally is how some of the best skunkworks projects produced results. Constraint is an advantage in creativity.

As for coping with the emotions, launch sooner rather than later so you know how far off you are from something useful. One of the worst emotions is launching late and realizing you could have stayed in a mode of building without feedback nearly infinitely. The launch is good training for the emotions because you'll realize how unreliable they can be in the absence of data. And always have at least one active user.

And exercise, and grow disciplined with sleep, preferably starting the day hacking because not only does it awake your mind but you give more of the benefit of new ideas to your startup rather than the day job.


Unfortunately I can't pay the mortgage based on revenue projections :)

I have noticed that by being constrained on my time that I have not touched frivolous features. The core product is quiet lean but is working great so far as an MVP.

Thanks for the great comments.


You can pay it based on revenue: launch and get users.

The fear of putting something out in the world isn't only an inevitable part of creation but also a necessary one.

http://blog.redbubble.com/2014/04/daily-inspiration-agnes-ma...

http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2014/03/31/agnes-mart...


9-8:30? that's tough. I guess I shouldn't be complaining.

I can relate to forcing focus on time management. I've got little for everything else but I'm only focused on the long term so I know there is light at the end of the tunnel.

You are completely right. These days and with my hormones completely abnormal, butterflies and raw emotion are non-existent. I almost feel robotic.


I've been in China, they really work lots of hours but don't have western world work-intensity and stress. That's at least what I've seen in a couple of factories and commercial centers.


Yes we love facetime (solidarity or something). Personally don't get it. Think our poll on HK a while back proved that few of us are really effective more than 5 hrs a day. That said in China we have to be in the office which means you can't work on your own thing without feeling compromised, so weekends it is.


Does the work ethic and intensity follow the western world in the technical fields like startups? Or are long hours and cheap labor only for factories?


Even migrant factory workers are well paid compared to what they would make at home in the interior. They would actually complain if you cut hours because they would earn less (assuming no other company does the same and let wages go up).

Not to make light of their situation, but I imagine it wouldn't be so unbearable if one worked at Google and is highly compensated, and still had to work on their start up on the side. The crux of the problem is dissatisfaction of the day job, not the amount of work hours.

Generally migrant workers know that they can save money and live better, relatively. Whereas in a dead end day job you know your situation doesn't improve, even if it is in absolute terms better than a migrant's life.

We're made to look forward to something better.


Can only speak for my own experience. Everyone works long hours but this is the default culture and people are happy to.

Unless you have a startup in which case it makes the balance difficult. We have offices in 40 countries and measured that China/HK work the longest. (Well over the 10k sample size to make it relevant and excluding factory workers.)


Trust me. Coffee is my best friend but I do know that my body has completely undergone hormonal swings. Even my partner says that my lack of sleep and increase in coffee and Red Bull has changed me.


IMHO sleep + physical exercise can get you way further: Will make you work smarter, healthier and better thinker.

I'd say try to adjust your schedule to allow (at least) 7 hour good quality sleep[1] and at least 45-75 minutes of exercise daily.

You'll have 15:30 hours free :-)

[1] Getting a good sleep involves a good bed, freshly oxygenated room, right temperature, no room, no iphones/ipads/e-devices, no video-games, no-movies etc.


I meditate for about 30 minutes each night before sleeping and it does make up in multiples in lack of sleep. Without any scientific evidence but at least I feel more rested the next day.

7 hours of sleep with a full time job, a startup, kids and exercise? Is this even possible! One great life-hack we have is to sleep with the windows open and with thinner sheets. We both feel more refreshed the next day. And apart from the alarm clock, there are no devices :)


Sorry mate, I didn't take "kids" into account :-)

Whatever works for you!!! Meditation it is!!! (will try also!).


From experience, I'd say that good quality exercise is almost always a net time-gain over no exercise. The increased energy pays itself back.

Have you looked into High Intensity Training? That allows you to pack solid, proven exercise techniques into very short spaces of time.


Twenties? Try mid thirties :)

I am glad that I waited to work on a startup now because my knowledge and experience have given me confidence that I can pull it off. Earlier on in life and I would have been running on pure hubris.


Single or do you also have family obligations?


Partner and three children. Life isn't quite balanced right now but my partner and I agree that my startup is the right thing to do at this stage in our lives. The unbalanced lifestyle is hopefully only temporary.


A word of warning here. When I grew up my parents weren't around much because of their business. They did allright businesswise, but my brother and I grew up very independent. Not neccessarily a bad thing, but we don't have a strong bond. This is something I didn't realize until I met my wife, and her amazing family.

What I'm trying to say is: if you don't make sure your work/life balance is balanced right now, it probably won't be balanced in the future. And it probably will leave a mark on the bond between you, your spouse and your children. Realize that you can never get back the time watching your children grow up.

We're in the same situation. I'm also in my mid-30's, two kids, a job and a mortgage. I spend my commuting time on my startup, and all the time I can get when everyone's asleep. It was hard at first, but now I have developed a routine that works for me. I may not be able to work as many hours on my startup as someone with less obligations, but the hours I do have I spend incredibly productive and efficient. I love working on my startup, but until it makes enough money for me to quit my job, it's family first, startup second.


Damn this one hit hard. I am giving myself another month to get it out of the gates then I'll regroup and give my family a big "forgive me" hug. Thanks for reminding me of this.


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