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Why did the fed raise interest rates? To soak up some of that cash. It was too slow, but this is exactly the sound money policy that everyone expects. You loosen cash (what you mistakenly call printing money), when you need investment, and tighten cash when inflation and risk taking is out of control.

a sound response to some of the worst fed decision making in US history. they essentially ruined the housing market, priced out a generation of younger buyers, which is now crushing fertility rates, savings, and more

Strict zoning ruined the housing market, and this is a multigenerational problem:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00941...


Investment real estate ruined the housing market. All of a sudden housing prices are expected to grow year over year as an investment. As more and more growth expectations were applied to housing, public policy (including zoning) changed to protect those expectations. Is it any surprise that there came a point at which it became too expensive?

Once problem we need to solve is how to unwind housing prices without financially ruining honeowners whose house is their primary/only wealth. Of course this problem is even more severe in areas of the country that are becoming uninhabitable due to changes in climate as it drives down demand.


* fertility rates have been dropping for a long time. While this article is focused on "it's not about the teens", it isn't tied to housing, or after covid: https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-us-fertility-decline-is-not-d...

* housing market was already quite bad before covid (see sibling comment)

* Savings rates have hovered around 5% for almost 25+ years - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT


Was it them that did that or employers freezing wages and losing R&D credits/facing tarrifs / wild instability?

Well, seeing is how that happened before the tariffs, yeah, I'd have to agree with GP.

It's almost like pandemics have consequences.

The article makes a claim that it is no better in Canada and proceeds to remark about financial conditions. The mail is being delivered just fine, just not profitably.

I've not had issues with the USPS, but I don't doubt that it is getting worse. Private delivery (Amazon and the like) has been pretty much flawless. Order from McMaster, and it almost invariably arrives within two days (continental US)

I just don't experience what the author is getting at.


The USPS is in year 4 of a 10 year overhaul of its infrastructure. New facilities with new equipment optimized for the current mail mix. Magazines and catalogs used to be huge. Now they are a fraction of their volume. First class letter volume is crashing as everyone goes paperless.

Where there use to be separate facilities for processing first class, bulk mail, and packages; the new facilities deal with everything. And where the old system of 50 NDC (National Distribution Centers) are being consolidated to ~30 RPDC (Regional Processing and Distribution Centers) leading to a whole new strategy of how mail moves East to West and West to East. And mail sorting for delivery used to happen by mail carriers at local Post Offices, is now happening at LSDC (Local Sorting and Delivery Centers) set up service all mail carriers in a 50 - 70 mile radius.

And all of these changes are happening while still having to deliver mail (It never stops Jerry. It just keeps coming and coming)

So if you’re in the Midwest like Chicago, stuff coming from the Midwest or Eastcoast has been getting stuck in Indianapolis-taking 10 to 15 days. Stuff coming from West Coast gets here in 5.

There are 42,000 active zip codes and 640,000 employees. Making changes to that organization is hard and takes time.

What’s really cool is the work going on with Amazon, Walmart, Target and others for them to deliver packages directly to LSDC for same day delivery. Once you get away from the cities, no one can compare with the USPS for last mile delivery.

TLDR USPS is changing. Things may get worse before they get better.


Even simple "changes" (like cutting a single truck) cause massive mayhem in their wake.

The simple "elimination" of nightly mail pickup from rural post offices has resulted in multi-day backlogs just getting anything out of your local Post Office. If I walk into any of my local POs in the county this morning to ship a Priority Mail Express letter overnight, they will not guarantee that it will be received tomorrow. The envelope will sit for nearly 24 hours locally for tomorrow morning's mail truck before it is brought back to a processing center tomorrow night to be introduced into the mailstream and finally processed outbound.

Basically anything being shipped cross-country is going to be snared in Rural Delay Hell and it absolutely sucks. Combine this with the recent postmarking changes and we're in for an absolute fun treat when it comes for mail-in-voting time.


Yes. The only reason bug shippings are getting same day is because they are bypassing most of the postal network and dropping it off in time for the days final sortation for delivery.

> Things may get worse before they get better.

I like to say, things ALWAYS get worse before they get better!

Halfway through a remodel your kitchen is now torn up and nonfunctional.

Halfway through a surgery you have an open gut wound AND a tumor.

Halfway through combing your hair you look like you had a stroke halfway through combing your hair.


Where can you read more about this?

Announcements and documentation can be found at pe.usps.gov and postalpro.usps.com

User guides on PostalPro are probably the best place to start. The Domestic Mail Manual is highly recommended if you have trouble sleeping.

This stuff gets discussed with industry via MTAC (Mailer’s Technical Advisory Committee) and the various special topic User Groups.


How many packages a year do you order, do you think? Just curious.

Sorry this was late -- a decent amount, probably 2-3 a week minimum.

That’s just most heart rate monitors. Often it isn’t enough conductivity (add water before activity) or the battery is low


This is an article written by a company/llm trying to justify huge increases to the pricing structure.

Oh! Yknow that thing we were charging you $200 a month for now? We're going to start charging you for the value we provide, and it will now be $5,000 a month.

Meanwhile, the metrics for "value" are completely gamed.


The price will be what you are willing to pay. No justification required, excepting for fairness (info asymmetry and what else?). It is written by me. Unfunded bootstrapped !!call it dire straits.


> Meanwhile, the metrics for "value" are completely gamed.

Well, of course. One of the huge advantages of agents is that they will actually help you to almost any extent game metrics.

Unlike people, who have ...


:)


At the same time, I actually wouldn’t mind a world in which AI agents cost $5000 a month if that’s what companies want to charge.

I feel like at some level that would remove the possibility of making a “just as good as humans but basically free” arguments and move discussion in the direction that feels more productive: discussing real benefits and shortcomings of both. Eg, loss of context with agents vs HR costs with humans, etc…


Teachers salaries were never super amazing. Experienced teachers probably could, but it did take a good 10-15 years to get there.


> Covid has a mortality rate under 1%.

I hate it when blanket statements like this creep in.

Which Covid? The initial version was definitely more deadly than later versions.

What about future covids? Are you willing to guarantee every version of covid from here on out will be less deadly? It is the general case to be true, but it is not some sort of law.


Babies have strong legs in order to push themselves out of the womb


This was indeed a wrong statement - I was pretty sure I had read something along these lines, but I checked it out after writing this and no, it's not the case.


whoa, two weeks


@apwell23 while the author didn’t say how s/he measured QA, creating the QA process was literally the first bullet.


People don't want AI passively lurking in the background extracting behavioral data yet this is the model they are aiming for, or at least gravitating towards repeatedly.

I also don't need / don't want it's manipulative presence around.

Not to be paranoid, but it's not just about browsers, that's just the most convenient place we've gotten started with this sort of mass surveillance (and control) architecture.


> People don't want AI passively lurking in the background extracting behavioral data yet this is the model they are aiming for, or at least gravitating towards repeatedly.

Is there any evidence Mozilla has plans to do this? As far as I know, there's only two companies doing what you describe: Microsoft and Meta. Microsoft being the most invasive (and evil) by a huge amount—because it's at the OS level.


Yes, the article is about Mozilla, yes I was sloppy in expanding the scope without saying as much.

Microsoft is definitely the most overt in all of this, but Google is working on built in WebAPIs[1], Opera has integrations (sidebars too), Brace includes Leo, and then of course there are the "AI first" companies like Perplexity, Arc etc...

The problem is often that almost all browser features lurk in the background without you really knowing whether they are active or what their scope really ends up being. Cookies, javascript, and various other aspects of the reality of using the web have been abused for mass tracking (and surveillance)

So what's this got to do with Mozilla? Unless Mozilla is encouraging the use of local models, they are just encouraging the development of the same technology that has gotten us into this trouble in the first place. Maybe they should continue the work that meta started -- support development/use of open models of AI and guarantee the AI feature will be completely sandboxed in useful ways.

[1] https://developer.chrome.com/docs/ai/built-in


Seriously? Immigration is to blame for antivax rhetoric and influence?

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211216/dq211...

Stats show that immigrants have high levels of immunization.


Vaccination rates in immigrant populations is lower than native born children, but not significantly. As you noted in your link, they're generally willing to get vaccines, but many didn't have access before they immigrated.

Also, the current outbreak was incubated in Mennonite communities before spreading wider. Despite living in Canada for over 100 years Mennonites are still considered immigrants by many because they are insular and different.

In other words, it's a racist talking point that has enough truth to make it non-trivial to challenge, but has no actual basis.


Canada has a mandatory immigrant medical exam for anybody applying for permanent residence or a visa of longer than 6 months. At this exam, the doctor will ask for vaccination records and prescribe missing vaccinations. It is unlikely that immigrants are contributing to this outbreak.

The Mennonites in Canada aren't actual immigrants and are not subject to this mandatory exam.


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