The take that I am increasingly believing is that Software Engineers should broadly be worried, because while there will always be demand for people who can create software products, whatever the tools may be, the skills necessary to do it well are changing rapidly. Most Software Engineers are going to wake up one day and realize their skills aren't just irrelevant, but actively detrimental, to delivering value out of software.
There will also be far fewer positions demanding these skills. Easy access to generating code has moved the bottleneck in companies to positions & skills that are substantially harder to hire for (basically: Good Judgement); so while adding Agentic Sorcerers would increase a team's code output, it might be the wrong code. Corporate profit will keep scaling with slower-growing team sizes as companies navigate the correct next thing to build.
Interesting conversation I had with someone from a semi-warmer climate recently, as they visited: After seeing all the snow on the ground, they commented "wow it must snow all the time here". Me: "Well, we had that big winter storm, when was that, three weeks ago? I don't think its snowed much since then". You can see the gears turning as they come to the realization that snow doesn't, like, go anywhere. If it snows below freezing, that snow stays on the ground. It doesn't melt. The city can move it to more convenient locations, and a very few rich cities have snow melting machines, but most cities don't. Its obvious when you think about it, but if all you're used to is rain its not trivially obvious: The grand snow strategy of most municipalities is "hope it gets warm soon".
This is an interesting way to frame it, but then the obvious question is, for areas where it almost never gets above freezing, why doesn't the snow get infinitely thick?
The other main ways you lose snow are: sublimation, wind blowing it elsewhere, compaction, and getting dirty (darker color helps it melt in the sun). All of these are relevant for other cities in the snow.
Glaciers obviously wouldn't get inifinitely thick since they're of finite age, but also they flow out to sea. It happens at a very slow, one might even say glacially slow, pace.
> but then the obvious question is, for areas where it almost never gets above freezing, why doesn't the snow get infinitely thick?
this is how glaciers are created
snow getting stuck up, not melting, compressing by weight into much much smaller ice and then more stacking up. And during the last ice age this repeating for a very long time (because snow is mostly air, so the amount of ice you get from it is very little).
The reasons why this isn't too big of an issue on the north/south pool, Antarctica etc. is because this places are also very dry/don't have a lot of snow fall.
To have snowfall you need water in the air. Which mostly comes from heat evaporating water. This doesn't happen in non stop freezing cold places.
So the wind needs to carry the wet air over.
But there is a gradient between hot wet air places and very cold places. So a lot of water rains or snows off before reaching the places where snow doesn't melt.
A large part of the south pool is technically a desert as it has hardly any _new_ snow fall. Just a lot of years old snow getting moved around by wind.
I realized this when I was on vacation in the french alps in summer time and saw a place dedicated for snow storage and labeled as such. I was "what ???" and then the penny dropped and I was impressed by that notion of having to store the snow somewhere since it does not disappear by itself. Funny
I had to fix a wheel bearing on my car in winter, no garage, just in the driveway.
I was telling my Aussie dad it’s hard to be outside, lying on the ground etc when the air temp is past about -35.
He said why not wait till the sun comes out and it warms up?
The temp only goes up a couple of degrees during the day.
This might be an unpopular opinion, but imo this is a directionally correct decision from Discord. I feel that it's important that there exist privacy preserving, anonymous communication platforms; not that every platform must have or must not have these qualities.
Platforms need to adapt to how they're used (or how they want to be used). The amount of child exploitation that happens on Discord should make any civilized person working in that company uncomfortable, and its natural and good to want to do something about it, not out of external or governmental pressure, but because you yourself can see the dashboards and logs, and can see what's happening.
There's a needle of difference between a government mandating identity verification, and a private organization saying this is how we want to run our company. Threading that needle is living in a free and safe society. If we can't thread it, and we fall to one side or the other, then you have to choose whether you prefer safety or freedom. Personally, I'd rather have both.
OpenClaw feels to me like the promised land of productivity is always over the horizon, but I keep walking toward it and it never crests over.
I quite like it just from the simple perspective that its a local LLM provider that's available to chat with in tons of apps I already use (e.g. Discord); its a good reduction in the number of parties who are privy to these conversations. I'm not sure if there's another system out there that's so plug-and-play, with so many options for conversation (Discord, Telegram, text, self-hosted web ui, etc).
But the tool calling is vastly overblown. It takes forever to get them set up, and that's to get them barely working. Bluebubbles has always been an ish app whose reverse engineering of the iMessage protocol is more likely to break on every macOS upgrade than do what you want it to do; and OpenClaw's iMessage integration is built on it. I've not yet gotten a Spotify skill to work (though I'm not sure what I'd do with it when I have one); the models just run in circles saying "it should be set up, ope its not, spotify_player sucks, lets try spt, wait that isn't working, lets try ncspot, why isn't this working". The "gog" tool is interesting, its a CLI-based tool for accessing data in your google account, it works alright, though OpenClaw's icon for the tool in their repository is a game controller icon; I suspect a mistaken, likely vibed, reference to the unrelated GOG/Good Ol' Games PC game store. What a mess. I could go on.
The cheaper models critically struggle to grep the full array of tools they have available to them. Kimi K2.5 exhibits this behavior where it will reiterate that it does not have access to my calendar, but usually if I ask it four or five times in a row, eventually it will claim it "discovered" the gog/Google Calendar tool in a hidden sub-directory (what?). Even with more intelligent models, like Opus or 5.2/5.3, the tools oftentimes need to be invoked with highly specific verbiage; "what's on my calendar" might work if you're lucky, but "use gog to fetch my calendar and display today's events" usually works.
I oftentimes just don't see the point. I can click the Gmail or Google Calendar app on my phone and get what I need out of those apps in less-than 6 seconds; it would take longer for me to dictate the exact phrasing to get what I need out of OpenClaw, let alone type it. I can see some argument for cross-operating on data between two apps, but getting that to work without paying Anthropic fifty cents for every query is even rarer. When I need an LLM to operate on my Obsidian notes, I can just use Claude Code or OpenCode... why do I need OpenClaw?
(I am genuinely open minded here; but articles like this just dance around high-minded abstract ideas of "im a super ai manager im so productive" without giving concrete examples. My suspicion is that the people who write these things were previously deeply unproductive people, and now AI has enabled them to achieve a mere fraction of the productivity that most of us already had.)
(And that's being generous. I think there's also a lot of grifters out there. I'll have to fire a stray at Cloudflare for this one: They've published a "get OpenClaw working on Cloudflare" repo where, if you set it up, would straight up cost you $50-$60, maybe $100/month; and they lie [1] about the cost in their own documentation. And you're paying that in addition to the LLM cost. Very bad look from a company I admire.)
> The question is more fundamental. In a world of AI coding assistants, is code from external contributors actually valuable at all?
Everything comes down to this. Its not just open source projects; companies are also slowly adjusting to this reality.
There's roughly two characteristics that humans need in this new environment: Long-ranging technical leadership about how the system should be built (Lead+ Software Engineer), and deep product knowledge about how its used (PM).
This is not new. The British boast of banning slavery but they will never tell you about their invention of bonded labour. They imported bonded labour to South Africa, Guyana and other parts of their empire.
Now companies can use the Internet to keep the labour remote. Doesn't even require a degree.
yeah how else do you want to organise who gets paid what? its nice and virtuous to claim that poor women should get paid more.
but there's simply not that much money to redistribute, unless more companies provide employment and drive labour demand up - exactly what is happening in this article.
so you can gesture all you want about women being poor and deserving more money, but it doesn't mean anything. you can't pay them above market rate, where will the money come from? certainly not taxes - there's simply not enough to go by.
Honestly, I love this comment, and I’m going to save it.
You’re so convinced that money is more important than human dignity you use the word “generosity” as invective. It can be hard to remember that this point of view exists, so thank you for the reminder.
its easy to talk about "human dignity" but its hard to talk about practical concerns on how to get the money for the dignity. please tell me, how do you expect the poor women in villages to get above market rate? unions? then the companies wouldn't even step foot in India and would rather move to Cambodia or Bangladesh or Ghana.
This isn't happening. The past six months has been rough on public B2B SaaS valuations, but the impact is a lot wider than just B2B SaaS (its all non-S&P10 software), and valuations are just vibes in the end. Most of these companies are, financially, doing pretty well; seeing key metric growth, including revenue and profit. This makes sense: AI does not fundamentally change the bargain SaaS brought to the table, that companies would rather pay someone to solve their problems than solve them themselves. However, the stock market doesn't care about this. The stock market doesn't care about anything; it behaves irrationally and non-sensically, and trying to derive any sense of how stable, strong, or successful a company is from stock market valuation is like using lines of code to claim that a software project is really good.
>that companies would rather pay someone to solve their problems than solve them themselves.
Are they not able to just engage AI to solve those problems now? E.g. this morning I saw an app that did something interesting to me for $20 a month. 20 minutes in Gemini and I had a functional app that replicated the behavior. SaaS are more complex but give me a small team and a couple months and we could replicate most any of them.
Or, the comments are also AIs.
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